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Podcast: Talking Kevin Love, The Draft, And The Future

 

Ryan Hebert (@HebertofNH) and I talk about Kevin Love’s trip to Boston and what other moves might follow if the Celtics signed him. We also discuss the draft and which (if any) teams might be willing to deal their pick to the Cs.

Follow Tom on Twitter: @Tom_NBA.

  • CP37

    Hopefully we can bring K.Love to Boston on draft night and start something special with him & Rondo. Hopefully the Timberwolves are just playing hard to get with this whole “Chicago’s milkshake is better than yours” front. 4-5 first rounders + Sully + Bass + Bogans and anything else that makes it work salary wise, how could Chicago offer anything more than that? We have more picks than them and Sully has a higher ceiling than Gibson and is younger and cheaper.

    • dasein

      I’ve been saying the whole time that Chi is the front runner here. Mirotic/Gibson + Butler + picks is a very strong package. Plus it doesn’t completely gut Chicago’s roster- they’d still have a really good team, which would keep Love happy. It all depends on whether Min wants to tear it down or still be in the running for playoffs of course. My guess is after sucking for so long they kinda wanna stay competitive. In this case, GS might have the best offer if they willing to include Thompson.

      I don’t think the Celtics should give up four first round picks for Love anyway. Makes it pretty hard to fill out the rest of the roster without those assets.

      I hate the idea of Love and Melo for about a dozen reasons….this isn’t fantasy basketball. If Love was to wear green then Asik is the most sensible follow up target. Need that rim protection to be a contender, and he is highly available. I think I’d pass on Sanders. He’s only ever played about one half season at a high level, has a huge contract, and is a crazy person. I think the only way I’d take him is if Wallace can get sent back the other way, which isn’t likely.

      • CP37

        I get what you’re saying, 4 1st rounders is a hefty price, but lets also remember that the C’s will still have 6 more over the coming years, 13 in total if you include the 2nd rounders, not to mention I imagine a pairing of Rondo/Love would draw a lot of interest of free agents to Boston. I know I’m being a bit of a homer on this one, but I really think that we can outbid Chicago for Love and I want Danny to do it at almost any cost.i

        • hax

          Kevin Martin is a pretty respectable SG, wouldn’t mind him being thrown in. :)

          Rondo-Martin-Green-Love-Olynyk would be a sweet offensive team. Defense, not so much, but that is what Stevens is there for!

          • CP37

            I was thinking more along the lines of resigning AB and having a backcourt tandem of Bayless-Martin off the bench, our pine would pack a pretty improved punch. Do you think volunteering to take K-Mart’s contract could help us in anyway in these negotiations?

          • dasein

            Martin has about 3 years at 7M each left. Last is a player option which he’d probably opt into. It’s not a horrible contract. Not great either seeing as he only plays on one side of the ball. All else being equal, I’d rather not take Martin.

            Not sure that moving it would move the needle that much for Min anyway. Moving Pek would, but I want no part of that contract.

          • CP37

            Pek’s contract makes me appreciate Gerald Wallace’s even more

          • Ping

            Pek’s remaining deal is 4 years, about $12 mil per. He has also posted a PER above 20 for three consecutive seasons, throwing up 16 and 8 over that span. He’s a bull in the post.

            Give me Pek at C over Martin at SG every day and twice on Sunday.

          • dasein

            Yeah, but he also hasn’t played more than 80% of the games over the last 3 (full) seasons. He also provides next to no rim protection, which is mostly what you want from your C in todays NBA I think. And he’s not getting any younger (28 currently).

            If I’m Min, first I’d try my bestest to find a taker for Pek. When that fails, I’d actually be very interested in pairing Gibson with Pek. That would give you a nice balance of O and D with your bigs. Of course Dieng should probably be there no.1 C anyways but that’s their problem.

        • dasein

          I think offering 5 firsts would be considered “throwing the farm” at them. You’d need something close to an iron clad guarantee that Love would re-up to even consider that. I doubt that happens given how firsts have been valued recently. I spose if it were this year’s picks, plus the Clippers pick (which will be low) you might need one more to get it done. Just make sure its protected if that’s the case.

          This all assumes Min values picks over players though, and it’s not clear that they do. I think our best chance is if Love “strongly suggests” that he wants Boston.

          • hax

            The 76′ers 1st rounder(becomes two 2nd rounders if they miss the playoffs next season) and the Clippers pick are practically junk, but still look good on paper when Saunders has to look at his fans and say ‘look what we got!’

            Also, considering we’d have at least Rondo-Love in the East, I’d expect play-offs, so our 2015 pick might be junk too. That draft doesn’t seem deep.

            Including those and this year’s picks(we’d have to use the 6th pick then trade that player due to the consecutive year rule but yeah), we’d only be giving up two nice picks, Sully-Bogans-and whoever else Flip wants, Green or Bass, or cough Wallace cough.

            Agreed that we’d need a re-sign guarantee, and the best chance is if he walks into Flip’s office and says “I want to be a Celtic”…or makes it publicly known he won’t re-sign elsewhere, scaring off Bulls/Suns/etc.

          • CP37

            The good thing is that he’s already expressed that he’d considering resigning with the C’s and he’s a BIG fan of Celtics history. If he gets traded here, he’ll get comfortable, grow to love the city and fans and even make the playoff, he doesn’t mind going to a team that’s a few pieces or years away so long as he can be successful .

          • CP37

            Let’s hope that his visit last weekend was a strong enough suggestion. As for the picks, even if Danny has to throw the farm + the tractor at Minny to get K. Love I hope he’s got the courage to go for it. I think the limit for us is 4-5 first rounders, I think it’s reasonable and shows were very serious at the same time. I would surmise that Chicago wouldn’t be able to go THAT high could they?

      • Ping

        To be fair, if Boston ends up sending Minny 4 first round picks for Love, they will still have 5 over the next five seasons…the standard rate. They could dump one in 2014, ’15, ’16, and ’18 and still be in good shape to add cheap, young talent via the draft. If Danny goes for it and builds a contender, there will only be so many roster spots available. Even if he hits on every pick, which is impossible, the C’s wouldn’t have the space, minutes, or time to develop two rookies each year.

        Just think back to the Garnett era. Giddens, Bradley, JaJuan Johnson, Sully and Melo were their first rounders. Only Bradley and Sully remain, and it’s taken them until now to be real contributors. Assuming this team is a contender in the immediate future, drafting at 20 or later doesn’t guarantee much. First round picks are only so valuable, and I’d hate to see the continued inflation of just one more pick prevent the C’s from landing a top 5 NBA player.

        • dasein

          Yeah, getting that star is the hardest part so I know what you mean. But the Rox got Harden for what…2 mid first rounders and a 1-yr Kevin Martin rental. Despite Simmon’s history revision, that was widely thought to be a decent haul at the time. So 4 1st sounds like a hell of a lot in comparison. Picks aren’t just a way to land stars. They represent the best value players available.

          It’s not that we’d use all those picks either, but they are the currency that grease the trade wheels and it’s not like Love would be the final piece. Still need something to go after the likes of Asik.

          • Ping

            I understand what you mean. Precedent for trades involving a star has been 2 or 3 picks. The Harden deal included 2 and the KG/Pierce included 2.5 (’17 swap).

            However, the NBA is a little wiser, and the new cap rules make it hard to include many players in a deal a la the KG trade. Harden, though good with OKC, was also clearly underrated by most every NBA GM. If Houston Harden were to be traded, he would net at least 3, I have to think.

            I agree there’s a point in trading picks where the haul is too great. Whether that’s 4, 5, or 6 picks I don’t know. That’s up to DA and the other GMs. However, if it’s accepted that 3 picks is the minimum for Love, I would definitely go to 4 if that’s what it takes.

          • dasein

            Yeah, I don’t disagree really. I’d certainly be bummed if we missed out on Love for the sake of one extra (4th?) pick that will probably be a mid-rounder anyway. I guess I’m just saying I hope Danny will be smart about it and not give it all up just because he can. I’m sure he will be.

            The more I look at the options at 6: Vonleh/Randle/Gordon/Smart, the better going all in on Love looks. Those guys all look a bit hit or miss, and Love is a bonifide star in the league. Getting him would also make keeping Rondo more likely, which is cool too.

            If Love doesn’t work out, I think my next preferred move would be to trade down and take Saric. Like I’ve said before, it seems that he’s in that 2nd tier anyway and you might be able to get him plus another asset.

  • hax

    If we get Kevin Love on draft night, I think Danny would do whatever it takes to make cap space because Melo would probably consider Boston. Maybe even LeBron if the Spurs happen to destroy the Heat and show him that Rondo-Love would be better than Wade-Bosh for the next few years.

    All major ‘ifs’ but we have to dream big, right?
    I mean, how many fans are going ‘draft some guys this year, next year, then those nets picks and swapped picks!!!111 We can do something by 2020!!!!’

    • CP37

      I LOVE (pardon the pun) the idea of Rondo-Love-Melo, but the process of getting all three together wouldn’t leave us with much of a bench. What do you think we could do to fill in the holes around them and how much of a major threat do you think Chicago is to us in the pursuit of Love?

      • hax

        I think the Bulls are more of a threat to land Carmelo than to get Love right now. All they have to do for Melo is amnesty Boozer, say ‘Noah-Gibson-Melo-Butler-Rose…it’s all there already, just sign up’

        But they are actually kind of scary on the Love front as well. Two 1st round picks this year, 3 next year. You can’t trade consecutive years of your own 1st rounders but if they agree to draft certain guys this year, they could then dump all five of those to the Wolves, along with Gibson & filler(Dunleavy, Brewer, Snell). And they could then do the above Boozer-for-Melo strategy on top of that. Noooo.
        ____________________________________________________________

        As for the bench, this depends on what we would lose in the Love trade. Jeff Green as a 6th man would be cool…
        Also, there is a slight chance Melo would take less money because he wants rings instead of cash. Give us a little more room to play with and get cheap-high value guys. :)

        • CP37

          I’d love to use 4 1st rounders in a trade for Love and then use another pick to bring Larry Sanders/Omer Asik to Boston, resign AB and then continue to improve the bench. A Rondo-Bradley-Green-Love-Asik/Sanders starting lineup could be formidable and if we’re somehow able to keep Kelly, I’d love to continue to witness his progression off the pine. Even if we have to take back Kevin Martin’s contract from Minny, I’d certainly not mind that, considering he’d make our bench better. By the way, isn’t Boozer’s expiring contract a key they’ve been rumored to have offered to Minny?

          • hax

            No on Parsons. Morey wouldn’t even add him in a Rondo deal at the trade deadline. He’s part of the reason Dwight came to Houston so the Rockets want to keep him.

            4 picks isn’t the end of the world…
            The two this year. The Clippers and 76′ers picks next year!
            Sully-Green-Bogans as well, that’s not really a bad package considering the Wolves -haven’t made the playoffs- And if Love somehow says ‘only going to Boston’, maybe swap out Green for Wallace and just force Flip to take him…mwhahahaha

            I don’t want to give up any of the Nets picks/swaps…if Garnett retires, Pierce leaves, their team could get really bad in a couple seasons.

          • Ping

            Four picks is more than reasonable considering what else we have available to deal. Love is a superstar. Franchise player. When you have the opportunity to get a guy like him, you don’t waver when you’re debating giving up 3 or 4 picks. The #6 this year, the Clips’ pick next year, and one of our 2016 picks is a minimum, most likely. I’m not going to fret if a 2018 pick goes as well. As valuable as 1sts are, you can only draft so many rookies and retain them when you’re building a contender.

            As for any Melo scenario, it’s near impossible if Love is also acquired. CelticsBlog (friends with CH I believe) had a post outlining the means to get both and it is incredibly complex. The C’s would have to juggle numerous cap numbers and pull off unlikely side deals simply to fit three players making $17+ million (Love, Melo, Rondo extensions).

          • hax

            Agree with everything!

            But there is a chance Melo would come cheaply to team up with Rondo and Love. Then Rondo-Love grabbing similar deals next season. Something in the $12-$15 per year range.

  • skeeds

    I get how 4 picks for Love might seem too much for some, but lets not lose our scope here playing the asset game. At the end of the day, the C’s would be very lucky to draft a Kevin Love level player with all their picks combined in their next 3 years, especially considering that probably none of them are projected to be lottery picks.

    How often do we draft a Kevin Love? Do we realize how low the real value of an average pick is? Since drafting PP in 1998, in 15 years the only 2 players who come close are Big Al and Rondo. That’s literally it. Look back 30 years, since 1984, there’s PP, Antoine, Joe Johnson, Billups and Reggie Lewis. Count the ones that have had all star careers with the C’s. One a decade.

    Ainge could trade away all his available picks for the next 4 years for Love and it would still probably be the right move.

    • CP37

      I’m more than with you on this one, DA didn’t build up this war chest for the sake of being stingy or cautious. If it takes 4 or 5 first Rounders to outbid Chicago and Phoenix and bring K. Love to Beantown, I’m sure I’m not the only one here who’d have no trouble sleeping at night.

    • Ping

      Exactly. First rounders have been held in such high regard of late more for their monetary value than All-Star value. Rookies are cheap and controllable, so when you hit on one that can contribute immediately, it’s an enormous addition.

      However, it’s nearly as hard as ever to find that true franchise building block in the draft. If Boston can land Love for a few picks, they should do it 100 out of 100 times.

  • hax

    ‘Cavs will trade for Love even without his word that he’ll re-sign.’
    —-
    Next year: “Cavs get 1st overall pick after missing playoffs and watching Love leave in free agency. Irving regresses for 3rd straight year. Dion Waiters punches every teammate, only suspended 1 game.”

    • dasein

      they bring it on themselves don’t they…

  • hax

    Get-able Centers we should try to get -imo-

    Tier 1: Asik
    Tier 2: Sanders, Chandler, Varejao
    Tier 3: Thabeet

    Houston needs to move Asik to finish up their roster.
    Bucks and Cavs are in the Embiid sweepstakes, Bucks also have Henson.
    Knicks are desperate and Phil Jackson has signed lamar odom and got fined for tampering in his time as GM.
    Thabeet is just reaching his prime and never really got a chance.

    • CP37

      Asik is a downright goon defensively and Ron Adams raves about him, Love & Asik upfront would be dangerous, but how much do you think we’d have to pay to keep him after his contract expires next year?

      • hax

        Depends on how his season goes and if he wants money or to be a contender.

        I’d say 4 years, 40 million.

        • CP37

          Sounds alright, its slightly less than Sanders deal and comes with a lot less baggage

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