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It All Ends Tonight, Thank God: Boston’s Updated Lottery Odds


Previewing tonight’s action, we take a look — as we have basically every day this awful season — at Boston’s lottery odds.

Right now, Boston has three potential finishes:

1. Tied for fourth with Utah. Boston would have a 10.35 percent chance at the top pick, and a 33.5 percent chance at a top-3 pick. The Celtics only get these odds if they lose to Washington tonight and Utah beats Minnesota.

2. Alone at fifth. Boston would have an 8.8 percent chance at the top pick, and a 29.2 percent chance at the top-3. The Celtics get these odds if they lose to Washington and Utah loses to Minnesota. Alternatively, the standings would finish like this if Boston beats Washington and the Lakers beat whatever collection of scrubs Gregg Popovich puts out on the floor. The loss to Washington combined with Utah’s win over Minnesota seems the most likely option.

3. Tied for fifth with the Lakers. Boston would have a 7.55 percent chance at the top pick, and a 25.35 percent chance at the top-3. The Celtics get these odds if they beat Washington and the Lakers lose to San Antonio. This possibility seems…annoyingly plausible.

As you can see, none of these finishes make an enormous difference in terms of the lottery. The big advantage in being tied for fourth is that Boston would still have a chance at the fourth pick if they missed the lottery. The fourth pick, of course, would guarantee one of Wiggins/Parker/Embiid/Exum.

All of that aside, no pick likely to be obtained with these finishes is going to be bad. As a result, it might be best to just sit back and watch a basketball game this evening.


Follow Tom on Twitter: @Tom_NBA.

  • Ghost of Garden Past

    So we’re looking at Aaron Gordon, Julius Randal (too similar to Sully?), Marcus Smart (but we don’t really need a point guard), and who else? Damn did that two game win steak hurt or what….

    • hax

      Julius Randle: We already have Sully and Olynyk
      Marcus Smart: We have Rondo, and Bradley is probably better as a small SG
      Noah Vonleh: Sully/Olynyk
      Dante Exum: Would have to play him at SG(He’s a 6’6 PG so that’s fine – think MCW but better.)
      Gary Harris: SG! But projected as a late top ten pick, probably too low for our 4th-6th pick.

      Then Kyle Anderson-Rodney Hood-Aaron Gordon-Doug McDermott but not sure if any are better than Jeff Green. McBuckets can shoot more efficiently probably. All of these guys are projected late lottery currently, though some mocks have Gordon higher. So maybe not good to waste a pick on one of these 4.

      So basically if Exum is available and we think he can play SG well, draft him. Otherwise, trade!

  • Spotter

    I like Aaron Gordon if we do not get a top four pick. He does a lot things to help the team win even if his shooting game is suspect.

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