Logo
Browse Archives by:

The Real Reason Why The Top Seed Matters So Much For Boston

 

“Maybe we shouldn’t play West Coast teams at the Garden.  Because they haven’t gone well.” – Head coach Doc Rivers after losing to the Clippers

At first glance, this looks to be a throwaway line by Doc during his postgame presser after the 108-103 setback against the Clippers Wednesday evening. A quick inspection of the numbers by your curious blogger however, tells us that Doc was really onto something here, even more so than probably he realized at the time.

You see, the Celtics have lost six games at home this year overall (27-6 at TD Garden). In what may be a coincidence, six of those losses have come at the hands of Western Conference teams. Here’s the rundown of those defeats, along with the final scores.

Oklahoma City (85-82), New Orleans (83-81), Houston (108-102), Dallas (101-97), Lakers (92-86), Clippers (108-103).

Against the entire Western Conference as a whole, the C’s are 8-6 at home, with just one more opponent looming (Memphis) later in March. That record split is pretty disappointing if you ask me, given the team’s overall record, so I took the liberty of putting together a couple reasons in trying to explain the letdowns.

1) A lack of familiarity: The Celtics only see these teams twice a year. A fairly safe assumption could be the coaching staff spends less time looking at these squads (besides the other Western Title contenders) than their Eastern Conference counterparts. Why’s that? Likely simply for the reason that they aren’t a majority priority, given the very slim possibility this team will see them once again when it matters. (i.e. the postseason)

2) Lack of Importance: Piggybacking on the point made in reason one, you have to take into account that a lot of these games aren’t as important in the standings. There are no potential two game swings. You never want to lose, but if you had to make a choice, you’d want to do it against the West. The C’s record tells me they seem to realize this as well. Every squad is prone to letdowns. Boston’s have come regularly against the west.

3) Injuries: Here’s a quick inspection of the team’s roster situation for each of those losses:

OKC: No Jermaine O’Neal, Kevin Durant
NO: No Rondo, (Also no JO, but he’s on every game on this list)
HOU: No Kevin Martin, KG, Delonte
Dallas: No Delonte
Lakers: No Shaq & Delonte
Clippers: Just 10 active players

Clearly a few big names were absent here, but to me, I don’t buy that as an excuse. The C’s have faced the injury bug all year long, not just in these select games and that still hasn’t stopped them from taking care of business in other games, which brings me to the good news about this “problem.”

The Celtics are undefeated at home (19-0) against Eastern Conference opponents this season.

That my friends, is a terrific and extremely impressive number. Despite all the injuries and turmoil, the C’s have taken care of business at home against the teams it matters most against. Doc Rivers, his staff, and his players should get tremendous credit for being ready to play every night in these contests.

While we’re here, let’s take a quick look at the home/road splits for the C’s against the East and West.

Home: East (19-0) West (8-6)
Road: East (11-7) West (8-3)

Now, we get to the tough part. It’s painfully apparent how much home court advantage matters to Doc, (as it should) given this tremendous record, proving as of know, the C’s are unbeatable at home against the East. Still, despite the success, they are only just clinging to a 1 1/2 game lead over Chicago for the top seed in the Conference.

Ryan covered a lot of this topic earlier this week, but Boston has a lot of reason to worry about the Bulls nipping on their heels, as Chicago has a very favorable schedule down the stretch.

The Celtics? Not so much.

As of Friday, Boston has the most games remaining out of any NBA team (20) as well as the most road games (12). Despite the tough path, a lot of these roadies are winnable games, with a couple jaunts out west against playoff clubs (San Antonio, New Orleans) and against top East contenders (Miami, Chicago, Atlanta)

The good news is the team’s home schedule is that the team should continue to succeed the rest of the way. A quick look at what’s left for them in their remaining eight home games.

Milwaukee, Indiana, Memphis, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Detroit, Washington, New York.

The Celtics will be heavily favored in all of those games, and to be perfectly honest, they likely need to run the table at home if they want to stay atop the Eastern Conference.

When push comes to shove, this entire race could easily come down to April 7th TNT showdown in Chicago. A Boston win will give them the tiebreaker (3-1) and a much needed extra game cushion in the race for the number 1 seed.

Will the Eastern Conference be decided based on who gets home court? That’s a big no. However, a majority of chips (inferior first round opponent, officiating bias, homecourt edge) will be in the corner of whoever claims the top spot. And with Boston facing so many new faces/challenges entering the season’s final few months, combined with stellar track record at home, that’s an edge worth fighting to the bitter end for.

  • Fnguyen

    You also forgot to mention the inferior second round opponent which is an even bigger plus. If the picture stays how it is at the moment or near, getting the 1seed allows the Celts to avoid the Heat and Chicago until the conference finals. I am a big believer that those things matter. Especially with an older group like Boston.
    Too often have I seen the 2&3 seed duke it out to exhaustion in the second round to fall easily in the conference finals.

    • ElRoz

      Yes, # 1 gets Indiana….#2 get Phily…a noticeable upgrade. Indiana is going down fast, except that Charlotte is ever worse, but Phily could give a few tough moments and games. Much better to have Chicago play them.

      • Fnguyen

        Well thanks for the reply, doesn´t hit my point though, does it it ;)
        I agree however that Indy is an easy down while philly is not. My point is however that Orlando or Atlanta is an even easier down than Chi or Mi in the sec. round^^

  • ElRoz

    And left out of the conversation is the fact that Chicago is very good at home and is so-so on the road. Does this not add more incentive for Boston to work hard – unlike last game – and secure the home court? The point is that if they don't, then Chicago will, and the Bulls, again, are very good at home.

    Finally, in the "new big three" and Doc era, the C's are 1-9 in the playoffs when needing to get win #4 (clinching win) on the road: when they had to clinch on the road, they lost 9 out of 10 games, including games 6 and 7 in LA last year. They need home court.

  • phreesh

    What if it came down to running your starters ragged and getting one of the big three injured in order to get the top seed vs. giving the big three some rest and getting the two seed?

    What is the better move? EIRoz has some good stats, but that's a sample size of ten with several caveats in there. I think a healthy Celtics can take teams down on the road and they wouldn't lose home court advantage until the finals, so it's not a huge number of key road games, all told.

    All that said, I understand it's not necessarily an either/or proposition (wins = injuries), so playing hard until the last game could be a fine strategy. I would just argue that a second seed may not be the end of the world.

  • Chris O

    The 2nd seed is not the end of the world….it just makes a much tougher road to the finals. If this team really wants #18, first get the #1 seed to ensure home court throughout the East. The C's can only afford 4 more losses. And they need to beat the Bulls when they play. That way they will basically secure that top seed.

no prescription xenical bupropion tab zithromax 500 mg pfizer viagra on line buy deltasone online cipro in south africa purchase viagra without a prescription levitra website orlistat price discount cialis online cialis online us paxil lexapro cheap cialis in uk canadian propecia buy cipro in usa cheap viagra no prescription generic levitra canada viagra tab generic levitra mastercard natural alternative to paroxetine buying viagra from india purchase discount cialis buy prednisone online without a prescription lowest cost levitra best and cheapest viagra pills cialis pricing nolvadex price no prescription how to order cialis online celebrex price where to buy cialis cheap non prescription generic cialis top selling herbal viagra cialis discount overnight viagra sales in uk alternative paxil genuine cialis online viagra online stores online rx diflucan buy cheap generic viagra zithromax dosing how much is accutane cialis com purchase cytotec online azithromycin cheapest cheapest viagra online online pharmacies uk amoxicillin canada diflucan buy daily cialis online accutane oklahoma viagra cheap canada viagra discount sales purchase viagra in uk buy amoxicillin online xenical pharmacy ordering levitra buying viagra online legal cheap authentic viagra one day shipping amoxil side effects viagra how to buy cialis online best best price celebrex generic cialis lowest price buy cialis in canada us cialis propecia mexico online prescription viagra azithromycin purchase online cheap cialis online without a persciption cialis order on line dose amoxicillin levitra canadian cialis canada 5mg celebrex cost australia azithromycin 500 mg viagra online sale buy levitra in europe wellbutrin online pharmacy viagra canada pharmacies order nolvadex viagra professional pfizer cymbalta australia for sale buy online purchase viagra flagyl buy generic cymbalta 20mg wellbutrin online prescription cialis online american internet viagra pharmacy buy cipro online cheap viagra pill viagra approved viagra buy usa side effects for zithromax viagra 25 mg canadian pharmacy cheap generic viagra cipro generic 100mg of paxil real cialis pharmacies herbal alternative to lasix order viagra in canada cipro xr bayer discount clomid levitra online sales cheap levitra prescription cialis brand approved cialis cheap viagra discount generic viagra professional viagra pfizer 50 mg female viagra europe furosemide 40mg tab