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Game 60/82: Warriors (27-33) @ Celtics (44-15) Open Thread

 

Golden State at Boston

7:30 P.M. ET
TD Garden
CSNNE

Offensive Efficiency:

Boston: 105.0 points/100 possessions (13th)

Golden State: 105.2 points/100 possessions (t-11th)

Defensive Efficiency:

Boston: 97.6 points allowed/100 possessions (2nd)

Golden State: 108.2 points allowed/100 possessions (27th)

Probable Golden State Starters: Stephen Curry (PG) Monta Ellis (SG) Dorell Wright (SF) Ekpe Udoh (PF) David Lee (C)

View From The Opposing Bench: Warriors World

Thumbnail:
The Celtics host their second straight defensively indifferent opponent in a rematch of the game in Oakland February 22 where the Celtics obliterated the Warriors. How bad was it? The Celtics racked up an offensive efficiency rating of 116.2 and a defensive rating of 93.9. Both of those figures are league bests by wide margins. Effectively, the Celtics forced the Warriors into a game of near-perfect sucktitude.

WHAT THE WARRIORS DO WELL:

Before the February 22 game, the Warriors had won six of eight games. Have a look at the numbers from each of those wins (via hoopdata):

Effectively, the Warriors won these games with offensive performances that would lead the league by a fair margin. Interestingly, despite the scoring fireworks, their defensive performances improved on their season averages as well.

This suggests the Warriors, appropriately given their mediocre record, play well on both sides of the ball. Or not at all.

It’s instructive: Celtics fans will sometimes criticize the team’s effort and focus from night to night, and rightly so, but they remain on the top of the curve in terms of ability to execute (talent) and drive to execute (focus and effort). The Warriors are still a work in progress on both those fronts.

WHAT THE WARRIORS DO POORLY:

Have another look at the defensive numbers from those wins. Those are Golden State’s strong games. And while their performance is strong in relative terms, overall they’re still a very poor defensive team.

Hayes identified one particular area of deficiency in his preview last week. It’s worth revisiting.

Rotate on defense. The Warriors are, by a huge margin, the league leader in Opposing Percentage Assisted, a stat that sounds obscure and irrelevant but actually isn’t. It’s just the percentage of field goals by the opposing team that were assisted on, and the Warriors are dominant in this area all over the court. They’re league highest in O%Ast at the rim, from midrange, from the long two, and from three, and they’re second from inside ten feet.

What does it take to get an assisted basket? It takes a player receiving the ball with enough space from his defender to immediately put up a shot. If a team sees that happen a lot for its opposition, it suggests to me that they miss a lot of defensive assignments as a group and that it’s easy to kill them with ball movement.

PLAYERS WHO MAKE ME WORRY:

  • Monta Ellis. Surprisingly, Zach Lowe of former CelticsHub fame (current Sports Illustrated fame) pointed out today that many of the team’s shots come off feeds from Monta Ellis. I tend to think this has more to do with the sheer number of minutes the ball is in Ellis’ hands. That said, the dude can fill it up and players that can score have a tendency to get hot on the Celtics’ watch. Mostly trying to give me a heart-attack.
  • Reggie Williams. One dimensional offensive players scare me because they tend to make a team look like they are getting demoralized. Whether the players are actually emotionally affected when purely offensive players make shots is another story. For fans, they tend to cause a lot of gray hairs.
  • PLAYERS WHO DO NOT MAKE ME WORRY:

  • David Lee. Where did this guy go?  He left New York for a huge payday in Oakland and has yet to make the same statistical impact.  In fact, his numbers are down across the board.  This morning at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference I got the tail end of a panel entitled:  “Moral Hazard in Long-­Term Guaranteed Contracts – Theory and Evidence from the NBA” as presented by Arup Sen.  I wish I had thought to ask about David Lee in the example of playing well in a contract year and playing terribly after just locking up a long-term contract.  Seriously, look at these stats:These numbers are down across the board (thanks Basketball-Reference) and could have been the main example in Mr. Sen’s presentation.
  • Andris Biedrins.  Some idiot actually suggested trading for this guy prior to the season.  What was he thinking?  Recently, things have gotten really bad for Biedrins, but at least he’s in good spirits.  When it was announced that Ekpe Udoh would be taking over the starting center duties he jokingly made up an exchange between he and coach Keith Smart in which he cussed him out for the benching.  Despite the personality, the bottom line is just that he is playing poorly and probably won’t play well tonight.
  • WHAT WE WANT TO SEE FROM BOSTON TONIGHT:

    Boston needs to keep the momentum going and needs to get something out of their bench.  Two of the Celtics most consistent bench players are likely out tonight (Glen Davis we know is out, Delonte West’s status is up in the air but let’s just say it’s doubtful he’ll play).  I would love to see Troy Murphy, a full practice with the green team under his belt, really step it up and show Celtics’ fans that he’s still got it (hoping, begging assuming he still has something left to offer).  At any rate, Celtics’ fans are going to find out if Murphy still has some production left in his slightly above averaged-aged bones.

    Sasha Pavlovic is a Celtic.  Weird.  Should be fun to see him play though.

    PREDICTION:

    Boston 113 Golden State 106

    The parts of this preview that sounded extremely over-tired were written by Brendan Jackson.  Please direct complaints, insults and ribbings toward him.

    • Chris O

      I like the Sasha Pav pick up considering, but it is weird to see him as a Celtic. Only guy that would feel weirder would be Sasha Vuyabitch….

    • bgsbnny

      anyone have a recommendation for finding live stream of games online?

      • somguyinsac

        atdhefm.net

        • bgsbnny

          thanks man appreciate it

    • skeeds

      one more down ladies and gentlemen. Wafer goes to the locker room…

    • somguyinsac

      Not another injury! :(

    • Mike

      Man this is starting to look like the Redsox last season….

    • somguyinsac

      Strained calf muscle, so that's not so bad I guess.

    • somguyinsac

      Ray is burning that net!

    • Zee

      Krstic, Green, Wafer… all great!

    • Mike

      Great ball movement too

    • Zee

      GREEN!!!!!

      • Robert

        Green is looking good. Granted, most players will against this putrid defense.

    • Chris O

      Can throw Pierce in the 2 and green in the three, play real big, or go Rondo/Bradley

    • Chris O

      I love me some Celtics!!!!

    • Chris O

      Avery Bradley is horrible

      • Chris O

        Haha I get negative ratings for being honest, only homer idiots would negative that

        • kricky

          I agree and give you a thumbs up! The minute he comes in our leads get cut in half.

    • ElRoz

      Wafer not returning: told you!

      Anther one goes down…

      this is where the C's are going to choke this game up and lose: no bench, no legs, no win.

      • Zee

        Why you gotta be so negative? Did we lose to Miami when undersized? Then we won’t lose here either. Know your team.

    • Zee

      Grades (so far)

      Rondo A
      Green A
      Krstic A
      Garnett A
      Allen A
      Wafer A
      Murphy -D
      Bradley -C
      Johnson -C

      • Zee

        Pierce A

        • Chris O

          Agreed maybe A+…depending

          • Zee

            Well, all my A’s were meant to be the highest possible. Definitely A+’s.

    • Zee

      Our weak link tonight was the squad made up of Bradley, Murphy, and Johnson. Poor on defense and offense. Unfortunate we lost Wafer tonight.

      • ElRoz

        Unfortunate is the rule this season…even having Wafer healthy is too much to ask for!

        Boston's legs are dead, Ray, KG, Rondo are empty now…GS has 37 to 24 rebounds advantage!
        Wow.

    • Chris O

      Defense C-

      • Zee

        Only on certain people though. New guys are the weak links.

        • Chris O

          No the team in general. Sorry that is not even close to the C's best defensive effort

      • Chris O

        What the FFFFF is up with negatives on perfectly TRUE COMMENTS. I'm probably the biggest C's fan here, am on this site almost all day and I get negatives because the C's don't have a great night defensively??!?!?!?!?

        • Batman

          Hey I'm the biggest C's fan here

          • Chris O

            Doubtful, I have years on you lol

    • Zee

      VETERAN MOVE BY PIERCE! MY FAVORITE PLAYER! DON’T MAKE HIM MAD!

    • ElRoz

      Is Pierce a moron?

      • Zee

        Who is this guy? LOL!

      • somguyinsac

        No, that name is reserved solely for you.

    • ElRoz

      Rondo is taking shots late in the 4th – that's a recepie for disaster the last 5 years!

    • Zee

      Now all we have to do is get the ball and hold for the foul.

    • jack

      Any news on how bad the wafer injury is?

      • Chris O

        Pulled calf, was gonna return but did not…maybe someone will negative comment another true comment I make lol

    • Zee

      Ellis is a great player I tell ya…. great W! Now time for a practice!

    • Batman

      Murphy looks bad

      • someguyinsac

        So did Green at first, so I'll wait and see how he is after a few more games.

        • Batman

          I guess

        • Zee

          Nah, Green didn't look at all like Murphy. I saw signs of greatness from Green's first game. This is Murphy's second game BTW.

          • someguyinsac

            But you also have to take into account the play time each has had this year and I think Green is way ahead there.

    • kricky

      Can RR please stop overplaying his man trying to get the steal? This led to a bunch of easy buckets for the Ws.

      The Cap'n saved our asses tonight.

    • Zee

      Has nothing to do with legs, and everything to do with defensive insufficiencies from our new players.

    • Carlos R

      We have Green but lose West and Wafer… That means a lot of minutes for Ray and Paul. This injury thing is getting ridiculous!

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