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Celtics (40-14) @ Warriors (26-29) Open Thread

 

Boston at Golden State
10:30 P.M. ET
Oracle Arena
CSNNE

Offensive Efficiency:
Boston: 105.1 points/100 possessions (13th)
Golden State: 105.6 points/100 possessions (11th)

Defensive Efficiency:
Boston: 97.5 points allowed/100 possessions (2nd)
Golden State: 106 points allowed/100 possessions (19th)

Probable Golden State Starters: Wardell Stephen Curry II (PG), Monta Ellis (SG), Dorell Wright (SF), David Lee (PF), Andris Biedrinš (C)

View from the Opposing BenchWarriors World

Carmelo Anthony isn’t involved in this game tonight, but for some reason the NBA has decided to go ahead with it anyway. The Celtics will open up the smaller half of the season in Oakland against the not-to-be-slept-on Golden State Warriors. Jeff Fogle of new Truehoop Network inductee Hoopdata pointed out recently that Golden State would be a playoff team today if the season started at the beginning of 2011. They’ve won seven of nine, beating the likes of Chicago, OKC, New Orleans, and Utah twice. There’s also the fact that the Celtics haven’t won in Oracle Arena since the start of the Big Three era.

The Warriors are the conceptual opposite of the Celtics at just about every position. They have a shoot-first point guard, a PF who doesn’t “get” defense, and a goofy Latvian center. Stuff is going to get wacky!

WHAT THE WARRIORS DO WELL

Shoot long. The Dubs only attempt threes at the league’s 9th-highest rate, but they convert them better than any team but the Spurs. There’s a lot of gunning talent on this team: the starters and backups at the 1, 2, and 3 can all drill it.

Shoot hilarious free throws.

WHAT THE WARRIORS DO POORLY

Rotate on defense. The Warriors are, by a huge margin, the league leader in Opposing Percentage Assisted, a stat that sounds obscure and irrelevant but actually isn’t. It’s just the percentage of field goals by the opposing team that were assisted on, and the Warriors are dominant in this area all over the court. They’re league highest in O%Ast at the rim, from midrange, from the long two, and from three, and they’re second from inside ten feet.

What does it take to get an assisted basket? It takes a player receiving the ball with enough space from his defender to immediately put up a shot. If a team sees that happen a lot for its opposition, it suggests to me that they miss a lot of defensive assignments as a group and that it’s easy to kill them with ball movement.

Get to the line. Worst in the league. Hard really to explain why this is…Monta Ellis is a slasher, but has no ability or inclination to draw fouls so he isn’t in the top 150 in the league at free throws per shot attempt. Neither is David Lee, their scoring big, probably because he’s almost halved his attempts at the rim this year in favor of long jumpers.

PLAYERS THAT MAKE ME WORRY

Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis. Two preternatural scorers, one everyone loves and the other nobody loves enough. Curry is everyone’s favorite Dub because he looks like a young Jaden Smith and his shot is crazy/beautiful. So he gets away with having basically no personality to speak of.

Meanwhile, Ellis has been the leading scorer in seven of his last eight games. He gets a deserved bad rap as a ballhog, but the dude took the time to develop one of history’s best handshakes with a member of the arena staff, and that is good guy stuff.

Lou Amundson. Only because the NBA’s most surprising fact is related to him. Amundson is tall, white, has a tiny samurai topknot, and his last name is Amundson, but he’s not European. He’s American. He was born in Ventura and went to high school in Colorado. Think about that next time you start believing in something.

PLAYERS WHO DO NOT MAKE ME WORRY

David Lee. How often do you just straight up forget that David Lee is in the NBA? And then once every month or so someone mentions him out of nowhere and you’re like “Oh, right! David Lee! He went to the Warriors last year, right? How’s he doing over there?” Well, he’s not doing great. He’s declined in every conceivable stat category, Lou Amundsen and Dan Gadzuric have both been better rebounders, and his shooting percentage has fallen below 50 percent. That’s completely unacceptable for a center, especially one that now plays with the league’s best point guard (if you don’t agree, I encourage you to check the results of the Skills Challenge and get back to me).

That last line was a character I call “Guy Who Knows Nothing About Basketball But Is Still Really Confident About It For Some Reason.” Workshopping it for an acting class, would love your notes.

WHAT WE WANT TO SEE

The Celtics bust out their standard ball-movement strategies, because there are open looks to go around against the Warriors. On the other end, rotations and strong closeouts to keep the Warriors honest from three. I’d also like to see Biedrins go to the line as much as possible.

PREDICTION

C’s 96, Dubs 92.

  • someguyinsac

    Last year it was Eddie House's last game as a Celtic that I saw. Wonder who it might be this year?

    • hdavenport

      Hope you see a win for once!

      • somguytempinOakland

        Me too, though I don't get my hopes up as high like when I see them in Sac. Last few years have been tough.

  • Batman

    U didn't mention Rondo's 25th birthday!

  • Sully

    Here's a Battier 3 teamer:

    Nate Robinson to Portland/Von Wafer, Avery Bradley, Greg Oden's expiring contract to Houston/
    Battier to Boston

  • Batman

    Hayes your work is ugly. Also u ditched me on DDL.

  • Batman

    Rondo is HOT

    • Batman

      And i do not mean physically….

      • I_Love_Green

        Hahahahaha +1 my man.

  • Batman

    Delonte and Semih: Back in Black

  • Zee

    What the heck is going on!

  • Zee

    WAY TO GET BACK INTO IT STARTERS!!!! OUR BENCH LET US DOWN!!!

  • Zee

    WE HAVE TAKEN BACK THE LEAD DOGGONIT!!!!!!!!!!! 9-1 RUN!!!!!!!

  • kricky

    How to stop the damn warriors form scoring so fast? Jeeze! giving up 60 pts in the first half.

    Bench needs to step it up. Delonte?

  • I_Love_Green

    Wow what a game so far! Seems like half the crowd is rooting for the Celts!

  • Zee

    I think the problem is that Delonte is rusty. It slowed us down and he didn't look too confident.

  • Zee

    BACK IN BUSINESS BABY!!!!!!!!!!!! BLAOW!!!!!!!

  • Zee

    DANG IT! SIGH…

  • kricky

    The minute Erden goes in Ws go on a 6-0 run. Are you guys sure we shouldn't include him in a deal for a 3?

  • Zee

    "Get some security out here" I like Walton commentary :)

  • Batman

    God Rondo stop turning the ball over

  • Zee

    CAN YOU DIG IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • kricky

    way to pick up D in 2nd half. Headed for a really nice win. I wish Doc would let Delonte finish the game though and get some reps.

  • http://twitter.com/BradChampagne @BradChampagne

    Our bench is really concerning me. They can't keep a lead to save their lives and they look lost whenever the opposing team decides to play defense.

    • Zee

      I thought the same thing. But what I later saw is that Doc put in a hybrid line-up, as opposed to 100% bench. We may need to straddle it like that until we get a good backup piece.

  • Batman

    HAAAPPPY BIRTHDAY RONDO GREAT GAME CEPT FOR THE TURNOVERS

  • LStrike

    Yeah the Boston bench is really sub-par, but they did hold it out in the end. Although I think I've lost all of my confidence in Nate over this season.

    Great to see Semih and Delonte back tonight.

    • Zee

      It's not the WHOLE bench, just certain pieces named Nate and Semih. And lets remember that normally Marquis would be in their so our bench is a little weaker now.

    • http://twitter.com/BradChampagne @BradChampagne

      Yeah Nate's been horrible. I was a big Nate the Great defender a few weeks ago but there's nothing I can say now. He's sucking a huge one. Be great to do a trade that gets us a good piece and involves Nate. Win-win right there.

      Hopefully we can secure a good wing player, Delonte will get back into his grove and Shaq will bring the pain.

      Von Wafer continues to be aggressive. My boy Avery Bradley looked good out there too.

      • Zee

        Agreed.

  • ElRoz

    what the heck is going on with Perk now?

    Does this crap ever stop with this team…every game an injury!

    • http://twitter.com/BradChampagne @BradChampagne

      I know! It does feel like just about every single game there's an injury!

    • Zee

      At least it wasn't his surgically repaired knee, so he'll be fine from all appearances.

  • John

    Hayes,

    You have quickly ascended to Bill Simmons level (the highest – memebership now at 2) in my favorite sports writer HOF. Very smart, great analysis, and outrageously funny. I NEVER write to people, but I just wanted to give you some props. I always get excited to see your work. OK, enough of a man-crush. Back to work.

    • hdavenport

      Really really appreciate this, thanks. Always great to hear.

  • John

    BTW, Nate is awful. He, Rasheed, and Mikki – worst C's of Big 3 era. Mikki had no skills. Rasheed was detestable. Nate is a clown. Put Delonte as backup PG and Wafer as backup SG. Send Nate packing for anyone you can get.

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