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Possibility vs. Probability of a Celtics Max Contract

 

There has been a lot of talk recently about the marquee free agents this offseason and which teams will actually be in the running for their services. Unfortunately for the Celtics, it IS possible for them to score one of the famed “max-contract” guys. Unfortunate because this ability, while still possible, is a mere pipe-dream that gains more traction by the day given the two caveats inching towards reality:

1) Paul Pierce must opt out.

2) Rasheed Wallace must retire and accept a subsequent buyout.

All the news on the Paul Pierce front is quiet right now but all the speculation points to opting out being the smart business move for Pierce. Over the weekend, Chris Mannix wrote that given the amount of teams that are going to miss out on the bigger names this offseason, those teams might be looking at guys like Pierce to prevent going home empty-handed. Here’s Mannix:

There could be another member of the Big Three on the market, too. Pierce has a player option for $21.5 million next season. But with the collective bargaining agreement set to expire next summer and a new one expected to significantly reduce player salaries, several prominent players (including Dirk Nowitzki and Amar’e Stoudemire) are planning to opt out of lucrative contracts in order to sign new deals under the existing agreement. Pierce, 32, could leave the $21.5 million on the table with the expectation that he could score a contract worth $50 million to $60 million in the offseason.

I believe teams are going to think that’s a lot of Green for a guy in his thirties, especially a guy whose game doesn’t measure up to some of the other big free agents on the Flashiness Scale and the Pizazz-O-Meter. Still, the guy has been to the NBA Finals two out of the last 3 years. He must be doing something right and I think GMs know this and know that this can win over some of the more nonplussed fans.

If Pierce does opt out, the Celtics are immediately under the cap by about 12-to-13 million dollars whether or not they have plans to resign him. 12-to-13 million dollars isn’t enough to offer a max contract unless there is some funky math involved (steeper escalations per year than usual) and I doubt either party would agree to that. The Celtics don’t want to commit all of their cap room to just one Free Agent they don’t already have the rights to and the max player won’t want to be paid like a sub-max player in the first year of his contract.

Here is where step two comes into play.

Rasheed Wallace retires and then agrees to a buyout. According to the Larry Coon Bible, if Rasheed agrees to a contract buyout of 6 million dollars, it will be proportionally divided up between this year and next based on his current contract. In other words, roughly 3 million will count towards the cap this year and roughly 3 million will count towards the cap next year.

Right now the Celtics have roughly 63.3 million dollars in player salaries for next season. If Paul Pierce opts out, you can subtract 21.5 million off that number, making it 41.8 million. Next up, take Rasheed’s 6.3 million and turn it into 3 million and the final number is 38.5 million. The last projected NBA Salary Cap for the 2010-2011 season is 56.1 million which would give the Celtics 17.6 million dollars to offer to free agents to which they don’t have rights. Depending on the tenure of the player, the maximum salary for players next year will pretty much be either 14 million or 16.8 million. The Celtics would have enough room to sign either, but committing all that money to one player may not be in their best interest.

The questions that remain include: is a maximum player worth giving up one of the greatest Celtics ever in Paul Pierce? If the Celtics do sign a max player, does Paul Pierce take the mid-level exception to play with such a stacked team? Along the same “stacked team” theme, do other veteran free agents take huge pay cuts to have a chance to get a ring? Is an aging Big Three and a young superstar-in-the making enough to lure a top name to the Green?

Right now, all of this is just meaningless speculation. After all, Paul Pierce could opt in and decide to keep the 21.5 million that’s coming to him. Wallace could also take a long time to decide if he’s really retiring and even have a change of heart. Since some were wondering, I decided to explain that while the possibility is there, the probability is near-nonexistent.

  • http://CelticsHub.com Zach Lowe

    The C’s would also have to renounce Bird Rights on Ray Allen and all of their other pending free agents to actually get down to that level of having $12-$13M of cap room. If they don’t renounce those rights, cap holds prevent them from signing anyone.

  • http://www.livefromapt.blogspot.com w2

    How does Pierce walk away from 22 million for a mid level exception. Dude has serious pride. Not happening. Writing it seems almost irresponsible.

  • http://CelticsHub.com Zach Lowe

    Also: Teams that are under the cap do not get mid-level exceptions.

  • http://CelticsHub.com Zach Lowe

    as I understand it, anyway. I’m not sure off the top of my head what date the NBA uses to determine whether a team qualifies as under the cap. But I’m 99 percent sure (again, I’d have to confirm by looking it up and can’t now) that a team cannot start under the cap and use a mid-level exception at any time.

  • lakershater13

    Ray Allen is not opting out. We do not need to renounce his bird rights. Are you trying to tell me we need to renounce all of our 9 free agents? The only time you need to renounce players to keep them from counting against the cap is when they opt out. The league does this so someone like pierce doesnt opt out just so the celtics can sign someone and then sign him to a big contract with his bird rights.

  • http://CelticsHub.com Zach Lowe

    See questions #32 and #33 about free agents continuing to count against the cap:

    http://members.cox.net/lmcoon/salarycap.htm#Q32

  • Sophomore

    Interesting. One thing I still don’t get is exactly how the salary cap limits us here. Obviously, we were way above it last year, as were a lot of NBA teams. I’ve started on the Larry Coon page – it’s great – but man is it long!

    My best guess right now is that any max money FA would have to be paid with below-the-cap money because none of the cap exceptions (e.g., vet min or MLE) would be available. Just how you calculate your cap date, and how much you can change your cap number by timing or recharacterizing your other signings I can’t figure out.

    If there’s an angle that would put us over the cap but get us a great player, Wyc may well be willing to do it. The Cs payroll this past year was $87 mill, way above the cap. (The only team to spend more was the Lakers, who paid out $91 million.)

  • dslack

    Zach is absolutely right. Teams can have capspace or salary cap exceptions, but not both. The whole point of the exceptions is the they are EXCEPTIONS to violating the salary cap. If a team has space under the cap, they don’t need (and don’t get) exceptions. So, yes, a max free agent is in principle possible if the team renounces Pierce and Allen and if Sheed accepts a major reduction in salary as a buyout. But does a max free agent choose to come to play in Boston with just Rondo and 2 years of an aging KG? Only if it’s a max free agent that I wouldn’t want anyway (LeBron, Wade, and Bosh — who by the way I’m not sure deserves max money anyway — are not coming to that team).

  • JayAllDay

    It has always been my philosophy that four good players are better than two great players, and two good players are better than one great player. Winning envolves a whole team, and to throw all your chips in for one player is insane. But in terms of of my boy PP, yes he is one of the greatest celts of all time but this is a business, so if he opts out and wants too much money to return farewell.

  • Jay P

    The CBA gives me a headache.

    I really think Paul does opt out. In any scenario, it makes the most sense to him.

    If he wants the money, his best chance is to lock up a contract now in the 50million range if it’s out there, since after next year it’s anyones guess what the CBA will look like, and big contracts may be harder to get.

    Then of course, if his goal is his legacy and to cement himself as one of the greatest Celtics ever, then obviously opting out and restructuring a 3 year team friendly deal will remove all doubt in that regard.

    Either way, opting out makes the most sense.

  • crizik

    Ok, the pain is over. Go C’s!! Hope coach Rivers is still around next october.

  • NIck L.

    It’s not irresponsible to write that Pierce might opt out! There is a really good possibility. He can lock himself in to a guaranteed 40-60 million in the next 5 years. That’s more important than the 22 million. Who knows what the CBA will be moving forward.

  • Jeff

    @ Zach Lowe

    Ok so I have a question. I have a reasonable enough knowledge of the salary cap to understand most situations but if the Celtics spent around $87 million last year for their team and certain salaries don’t count against cap with their Bird rights can’t the celtics have PP opt out for 3 years $16 mil, resign Ray at around $8 which leaves them with Rondo $9, KG $18.8, Perk $4.3 and Davis $3?

    That would leave them with $51.1 mil committed with Ray’s contract not going against the cap right?

    So if a guy like Rudy Gay costs around $12-13 mil, then couldn’t the Celtic’s use the other $5 mil under cap for some added depth to get to the cap number then give Gay the full MLE of $6.9 and pay him the other $5.1 – 6.1 mil and just pay the dollar for dollar on tax?

    That would still leave them, if it takes $13 to get Gay, at $76.3 million and then go get a few vet minimums like Shaun Livingston, Michael Finley, and Ben Wallace, along with our Draft pick to fill the roster. You can even include a buyout of Sheed at $3 mil per year.

    Is this just a misunderstanding on my part of how the cap works?

    Can a player be offered the full MLE and then add on to that and simply be charged the dollar for dollar over the cap or is that not something you can do?

    Any insight on this Zach?

    Thanks!

  • Jay P

    @Jeff

    Bird rights allow teams to go over the cap to resign, not that it doesn’t still count against there’s.

    But other teams signing a FA, can only offer whatever space they have under the cap. Bird rights allow the team to offer him, basically whatever they want to re-sign him, and would just increase the luxury tax they but, but it still counts against their cap… I think.

  • dont_drink_the_koolaid

    i think paul will opt out and get that much money somewhere. but i think the Cs would be crazy to sign him for that long-term. truth is my favorite celtic (lifer, finals MVP, old school herky-jerky, played his heart out on both ends this playoffs, etc), but if they are going to lockin max money for multiple years….they need a guy that can lead the team with rondo for the next 4 years….a younger, more athletic 3 or 4 that can run the break and D up. these guys are never easy to snag but danny has to try.

    even though ray is older he has more miles left in him, he is a better complimentary piece. i think this team should focus on the 3 and 4.

  • Rich

    Jay P is right. The number still counts against the cap even with bird rights. Bird rights just allow you to re-sign your own players and go over the cap doing it. But w/e the dollar amount is that you sign said player to, it counts towards the cap when it comes to signing a free agent. So, for the Celtics to resign Ray and Rudy Gay for say 13 mill a year..well, they simply can’t do it unless they renounce Allen’s bird rights and he then signs for the MLE.

    An easy way to think of it is just by looking at Allen by himself. They can pay him almost w/e they want and go completely over the cap in doing so because of his bird rights. However, once they go over that cap they can’t sign any other FAs (besides the ones on their team from last year) unless it’s with the vet min. or the MLE. So, Rudy Gay + Ray Allen is virtually impossible as I see it.

  • Cptn Bubbles

    @JayAllDay Totally agree.

    This team is not a max player away. It is a few bench players away….ie PJ Brownish + Poseyish. This is not a team that is a wreck which did not make it to the playoffs or lost in the 1st round, or 2nd round, or 3rd round or even in 4 straight games in the finals. This team was as close to a championship as you could be without winning it. Tweaking, tweaking, tweaking.

    I’ve been perusing the bigs both rook & vet. He says he wants to stay with the Bobkittens, & he is very emotional…But I think you have to give Tyrus Thomas a serious look. He is 6’10″ with long arms & can jump! He is feisty & physical & in limited minutes avg’s 6rebs, 1steal, & nearly 2 blocks per game. He is older now, & Larry Brown seemed to prove that he is coachable (Doc says he can coach anybody). When Brown gave him more minutes vs Orlando in 17min he responded with 6rebs 2blocks 1 steal & in 29min 9rebs & 9-12 shooting plus Glen (being a former teammate at LSU) would help him a lot. Again, it’s just a phone call.

    Heard that the Heat are selling their #18 pick, worth it?

    Chicago is looking for more cap space…could they buy out Sheed?

  • lakershater13

    Ok so the way i see it we cannot get an all star player in free agency. The one guy I havent heard a lot about coming to the C’s is Travis Outlaw. 6’9 defender who can hit 3′s and get to the hoop. Posey who?

  • Jay P

    @lakershater13

    Interesting thought. He made 4 million last year, and I’d say he’s probably due for a pay raise, not sure the Cs can afford him.

    Most likely he’ll be looking for something longer term (given the upcoming new CBA) in a price range the Cs can’t afford.

    However, if he wanted to play for a contender next year and was willing to sign for the MLE (or a portion of the cap space PPs opt out could free) well, ya, I’d be all for it.

  • lakershater13

    The great thing about the free agent class this year is that so many people will fly under the radar and C’s may actually get someone they couldnt afford another year. David Lee would be due for a big contract but he may sign at a good price for some team. C’s wont get lee but the role player free agents wont be getting what they deserve this year. Look at Charlie Villanueva. 5 years 40 mil last year. This year he would be looking at the mid level in my opinion. Ben Gordan gets 5 years at 55 mil. This year especially with teams seeing what rondo got. Gordon doesnt get 11 mil a year. So while some teams sign James, Bosh and wade other team may be getting a discount on some role players.

  • dslack

    @JayP

    If Pierce opts out, it’s only interesting to me if he goes somewhere else. Opting out and staying with the Celtics neither helps nor hurts the team (except to the extent that it puts him on the books for more salary in future years, which might be detrimental).

    Do you think Pierce would get $50M for 3 years somewhere else? I do not. That’s basically the same price as 3 years of LeBron or Wade. I think his 3-year ceiling would be more like $40M. If so, better to take the $21.5M this year and hope for another $20M or so next year, with the new CBA.

  • Jay P

    @dlsack

    Paying him 21.5 this year would completely handcuff the team. How could him opting out not help the team?

    And yes, I think 3 years 35-40million is pretty reasonable, and I see no reason why the Celtics shouldn’t, or wouldn’t pay him that to finish his career in Boston if he opts out.

  • Rich

    lakershater I’d say it’s going to work the opposite. Somehow, someway, there are more teams with mega cap space than big name free agents.

    Two years ago, when looking ahead to this summer, it appeard that you would have all of these free agents and not many teams to pay them. Therefore, guys would end up having to take less money once the price dropped.

    However, in the last two years a crap ton of teams have shed pay roll, and now what you will have is teams missing out on LeBron and Wade and Bosh and Amare and Boozer and Johnson. When they do, they’ll be signing the David Lee’s of the world to max deals and the Travis Outlaws of the world to deals worth 40 million dollars over 5 years. They simply can’t walk away empty handed.

  • Rich

    Jay P, I think him opting out hurts the team because it makes them commit to him for multiple years at around 12 million a year if not more.

    No matter if he opts out or stays in, they aren’t getting a big name free agent this year. Why not hope he picks up the option, and then just retires with KG so you can go after the free agents next year. Signing him to a long term deal simply hampers your shot at rebuilding next year, when you will absolutely need to.

  • Jay P

    All I know is July 1st can’t come quick enough…

  • Jeff

    I know but they don’t have to pay dollar for dollar over the cap for Ray, just his salary and they’re not penalized on the tax.

    Soooo…if PP opts out, resign him at $15 mil for 3-4 years. PP deserves it, even in the late ages of his career, for being one of the C’s greats. His number will hang in the Garden one day, no doubt.

    Talk to Ray and give him more years at the MLE. $6.9 for 3-4 years isn’t that far from $8 and they could give him more years. The guy is a machine after all and hasn’t eaten a burger in like 20 years! He’s in better shape than Bryant despite being older!

    Ray becomes best 6th man ALIVE if they get a guy like Gay in the rotation with Rondo, PP, KG, and Perk/Drafted big man/ FA Big for Vet’s min.

    If we can’t get Gay, I say resign Ray and go for Outlaw at Full MLE for 3 years.

    If Outlaw is too much and they can get Mike Miller for $4 mil or less then that’s the way to go.

    I definitely think this team has one or two more runs left in them. It would be awesome to get a young up and comer like Gay who is still not quite superstar status and can thus be cheaper now. That would give time to develop with the Great’s before they retire and then allow the transition to be smooth into the Rondo/Gay/Perkins era. But if not now then I say just supplement as best we can with at least 2 SOLID bench contributors who can score and play D. We can’t have another Quis who MIGHT put up 8pts in a night.

    We need 2 guys who can play 20-25 solid minutes a night, and put up 20-10-5 type numbers (combine for the whole bench). Davis can be an explosion off the bench but not consistently. We need guys who can
    a) not give up leads
    b) play on both ends, meaning SCORE

    The problem isn’t D it’s guys who go to the basket and FINISH.

    We need a slasher or a guy who crashes the glass for easy buckets, and someone who can spread the floor along with a reliable jumpshooter who can run the offense for 10-12 minutes a night to spell Rondo.

    If we can get that, along with one of those guys who can run, is athletic, and crashes the boards, the C’s will easily mop the floor with EVERYONE. Especially LA.

    The most likely and sound solutions for bench: 1st choices
    PG – Shaun Livingston (vets min)
    SF/PF – Outlaw (part or full MLE)
    PF – Davis
    Drafted big who rebounds and plays D and will put it in the basket (Whiteside, Alahid although I’m not sure about his rebounding, and Seraphin, I’m intrigued by the European players because of the development level of some)
    C/PF – Ben Wallace (vets min, cuz this man knows how to rebound!)

    2nd choices:
    PG – Steve Blake (only at vets min or part of the MLE)
    SG/SF – Mike Miller (Part of MLE no more that $4 mil)
    Davis
    C – Brendan Haywood (this would be of interest if PP opts out, it would leave us with about $5 mil under the cap; he could be a force under the basket at $5 mil this year with some good inflation on a back loaded contract)

  • Jay P

    Free Agent class in 2011 looks pretty slim, other than Durant… who probably won’t be going anywhere anytime soon.

    I like the idea of getting Ray and Paul for about 3 years, they both have great conditioning, work hard, and should be durable enough to get good basketball (certainly 8-12 million worth) for 3 more years. Paul may lose (further) some of the first step, get to the rim explosiveness he used to have, but should retain the ability to create space with the step back, and create contact on ball fakes, that’s a skill set that doesn’t really deteriorate.

    I just don’t see cap space helping the team after this year, and I think there’s enough left in the Big 3 to warrant above mid-level money for 3 years.

  • dont_drink_the_koolaid

    @Jay P. ray is super conditioned and has a lot of miles left. i think pierce will decline fast…..look no further than his iso’s this year (to close quarters, etc). painful to watch….his mind says yes, his body says no.

    @Rich, agree that the Cs would be crazy to sign pierce long-term….and he will opt out…which only leaves one conclusion. disagree that they couldn’t get into the FA pool if that plays out….i’m sure danny is working the phones on it now.

  • Jay P

    @dont_drink

    The guy still scored 18.8 PPG through the playoffs, as well as a couple huge games. Granted, he’s dictated by match ups and doesn’t have the ability to go off against anyone, any night, like he did in 08. But he was the leading scorer through the playoffs on a team that went to Game 7 of the finals…

    Throw in what he means to this team, and in the history of it, and he he’s earned the right to retire in Celtic green and have his number in the rafters, I’ll be damned if he aint worth AT LEAST 3 years and 30 million.

  • Brian

    Pierce is only going to opt out to resign for more years/$$ w the Celtics. It would enable the team to resign Ray and have some room to add either a vet on downside aka ‘Sheed or a FA looking for ring at below market value. If Ray and Pierce were both to leave then Danny is going to blow this up.

  • dslack

    Pierce opting out doesn’t help the Celtics at all. At all. Unless you want him gone from the team.

    @JayP: In addition to Durant, there’s Carmelo

  • Brett

    I think the rumor about Ray asking for $75 million is absurd. He does not seem to care about the money, but rather winning and legacy. My bet is two years at $6-8 per gets it done for Ray. He stays.

    Pierce wants to stay. Ownership wants him to stay. Danny’s hands are relatively tied when it comes to roster/cap space. Pierce stays.

    I love our core, and I agree that it just needs tweaking. But if Danny and ownership witnessed us run out of gas at the end and they do not buy at least one additional first round pick (when every cheap team seems to want to unload one) to add some young depth and start to reload this team, I will be a total loss for words. (and don’t feed me the “there aren’t the minutes to develop them anyway” garbage. Make the time.)

    We just reached game 7 of the finals, which means many home games for the Celtics. Yes, we were well over the cap and paid tax, but that’s a lot of postseason coin for ownership. Do what’s right Wyc! Good, deep draft in a down economy = opportunity to replenish our talent. It’s what Red would have done.

    And try to unload Sheed and his contract for something useful while you’re at it. Thanks.

  • Perry

    Assuming Pierce doesn’t leave 21m on the table, and Sheed retires (very likely), here is the breakdown going into the summer

    Last year’s cap (2009-10) came in at $57.7 million.

    The luxury tax threshold was set at $69.9 million.

    Any team whose team salary exceeded that figure paid a $1 tax for each $1 spent.

    The Celtic payroll for 2009-10 totaled $87,054,429. Therefore they pay a luxury tax of $17,154,429 for a total of $104,208,858.

    Stern said last Friday that the league is projecting the cap to come in at about $56.1 million. The luxury tax threshold for a $56.1 million cap will be $68 million.

    Current 2010-11 payroll

    Paul Pierce $21.51 million
    Kevin Garnett $18.83 million
    Rajon Rondo $ 9.09 million
    Kendrick Perkins $ 4.89 million
    Glen Davis $ 3.00 million

    That equals a sub total $57.32 million, plus another $ 1.14 million for the 19th pick in Thursday night’s draft. It gives them a soft cap total of $58.46 million.

    Since they are over the cap before July 1, with or without knowing if Sheed retires, they are entitled to the MLE. The MLE can be used on one player or split between two.

    Ray’s contract will come down to Danny deciding if more than two years are palatable. Keeping his contract down to two years means they overpay him to get the length of terms they desire.

    There are too many scenarios to contemplate if Ray opts for a longer and richer contract.

    Let me give you guys some MLE type names and numbers at the SG/SF position:

    Unrestricted:

    Mike Miller ($9m last year)
    Roger Mason (under $4m)

    Restricted:

    Reddick (under$3m) — no way Orlando doesn’t match a Celtic offer.
    Randy Foye (under $4m)
    Childress (Atl. likely to match because of JJ’s likely departure)
    Ronnie Brewer (under 3m) Memphis might let him go since Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph will demand close to max money in 2011.

    …unrestricted PF/MLE

    Brendan Haywood ($6m last year)
    Udonis Haslem ($7m last year)
    Amir Johnson ($4m last year)

    A nice split of the MLE:

    6′ 9″ Travis Outlaw ($3.6m last year)
    6′ 11″ Channing Frye ($1.9m last year).

    Celts own TA’s bird rights, but I think they’ll lock him early — possibly 3 years at $10m.

    Nate Robinson can be given a fair contract, less than the MLE, but up to $4.8 million.

    Some notable players who could be signed for the veteran’s minimum ($1.3m or under depending on the number of years a player has been in the league) are Ilgauskas, Jarron Collins, Luther Head, Flip Murray, and Eddie House.

    If Ray is resigned for $8-9m, and Sheed retires they can use the MLE and veteran contracts to fill out the roster. Assuming Nate and TA are signed the payroll falls somewhere between $85-88 million. It would give them a luxury tax bill of $17-20 million. So, after taxes, the Celts would be paying $105-108 million versus $104m for 2009-10.

  • http://espn.com daron

    if pierce opt out and wallace retire why not sign pierce back and go after joe johnson and let ray allen walk will we be able to do that

  • http://celticshub idunno

    What does everyone think of acquiring Micheal Beasely? It seems very possible to acquire him. Off the bench great potential. Assuming our core comes back, who would you take out of Beasely, Mike Miller, or maybe a return of Ryan “the Great” Gomes?
    All seem like legitimate possibilities. I know a little off topic.

  • Cptn Bubbles

    The draft is very close. Here is another interesting site from our beloved Hollinger with some names not mentioned.

    http://espn.go.com/blog/TrueHoop/post/_/id/16880/revisiting-draft-rater

    His Draft Rater makes some interesting choices, guys I had forgot about. It’s worth looking at if you are really into the draft like myself & some other optimists posting here.

    I had forgot all about Omar Samhan (Saint Mary’s). He was a senior & had some nifty post moves. 6’11 260 21points 11rebs 3 blocks per game 73% FREE THROWS which is very important & too much overlooked considering how much bigs get fouled….more of a Perk body. In a weaker league but made a strong showing in the big tourney. Seems to be pretty smart & has 4 years exp. Can his D get better???

    Greivis Vasquez (Maryland) & Sylven Landesberg (Virginia) are also rated high by Hollinger’s draft rater. They are similar 6’6″ guards. I think Vasquez is more intense & a better player. It is interesting how high they rate by Hollinger’s system. Seems like it is highly weighted in favor of offense

    If you go around the net you can see all kinds of choices for the 19th pick. Hollinger has Avery Bradley from Tx–ugh! Bleacher report has Devin Ebanks from WVa.–ugh! Some places have Cole Aldrich 6’11 245 11points 10 rebs 4blocks per game center from Kansas dropping. We’ve seen some good things come out of Kansas, hello Paul, but Cole had a better soph. yr than jr in just about every category. It seems like he may be too lumbering & slow.

    We’ve got to do better than the last 3 picks. I still think Danny should have picked Mario Chalmers. Isn’t it usually better to go with the guys from the stronger leagues/better conferences??? I know there are exceptions, but isn’t it usually better??? 2 out of our 3 last picks were not from the bigger conferences.

    I agree with with Brett. Spend some money now & get an extra draft pick or two. Do everything you can right now

  • Cptn Bubbles

    @idunno

    Mrs. Beasley definitely has some game, but how tough is he mentally? How much effort is he going to give? He supposedly told a friend that if he had it to do over he would have stayed in college…that the nba is too much like work & not fun…. of course if he were winning he’d probably be a lot happier & glad to be in the nba, but is he gonna get better & tougher mentally???

    I’m a Mike Miller advocate, but I don’t think he will take that much of a pay cut. Of course, he is quirky & you just never know so Danny should give the obligatory call. I hope the Cs channel all the disappointment & anger & are very aggressive & buy a pick or two in the draft. That makes the fans giddy knowing that their team is SERIOUS & spending some cash to at least TRY & make things better. Go Wyc! Go Danny Go!

  • Cptn Bubbles

    This should be very interesting these next couple of weeks. Today, Golden St. traded Corey Maggette (pretty sure one of Zach’s favs) & a 2nd round pick to the Bucks for Charlie Bell & Dan Gadzuric. I think the Bucks are coming out ahead in that one.

  • http://celticshub.com Zach Lowe

    Between the Maggette and Salmons deals in the last year, it’s pretty clear Boston is acting with significant financial restraint. Both could have been had for nothing, in terms of basketball talent, and we have no evidence Boston was ever interested.

  • http://celticshub.com Zach Lowe

    And, yes, I like Maggette on the Celtics—a perfect offensive drought killer as long as he’s happy being, at times, the 4th option. He wouldn’t be, which would of course ruin my best laid plans.

  • Cptn Bubbles

    Yeah, I thought I remembered you swooning over Maggette. He is a methodical scorer making people pay in the paint. I thought Salmons did some good things for the Bucks (minus the last 2 playoff games). Surprised they are letting him walk.

    Phil Jackson’s daughter, who I assume is close to her daddy, says she thinks he is done. Who would the lake get as a coach??????? Wow! That would be amazing if the 2 finalists both lost their coaches. Unreal. I still hope Doc comes back, but wouldn’t it be verrrrrrryyyyy interesting to see Phil retire?

    Heard a rumor that Minn. is shopping its best players, Jonny Flynn, Big Al, & Kevin Love. Big Al or Kevin Love….hmmm… They probably want something ridiculous. Still, some nba teams are gushing sizable losses in revenue. It would be great if we could get a Pau like trade without touching our core or some more picks. I still think this particular C team is great, but I would love to see us get even better. I hope Danny has unlimited minutes.

  • http://celticshub.com Zach Lowe

    Minny has denied the Flynn shopping rumors, but it seems pretty certain Big Al and Love are available.

  • Cptn Bubbles

    @Zach Who do you think the Cs will be letting go or leaving? Sheed, Quis, Shelden, Scal, Nate (I imagine he is not at all happy about that million $ loss in pay)—does that sound about right? What is your best guess?

  • bos1

    Any news on Perk’s knee and status? Did they confirm the injury with an MRI. Is he going to have surgery? Will he be ready for the start of next season?

  • lakershater13

    In a perfect world this is what happens. Celtics trade rondo to memphis for the # 12th and 16th pick and Rudy Gay. Then we buy the heats 18th pick. Then you take the 12th, 18th, 19th and 52nd pick and send them to pheonix for Amare. With the 16th pick we draft Whiteside. Then sign Outlaw with the mid level.

    PG – Nate, Lafayette, TA
    SG- Gay, Ray
    SF- PP, Outlaw,
    PF- Amare, KG, Big Baby
    C- Perk, Whiteside

    Hello NBA Champs!

    Hey we all can dream.

  • Zain

    @Lakers

    Way too much faith in unproven rooks.

    I never wanna see Amare as a Celtic, imagine him trying to play D for a pivotal stop.

    Besides. Boston will never trade Rondo. I said it before I’ll say it again. They were gonna deny Sota and Seattle for the KG, Ray trade cause they both wanted Rondo and Boston flat out said no.

    I’d love to have Rudy Gay, but I don’t see it happening.

  • Buckets

    I’d love for big Al to be back in green. Dude is a serious 20-10 threat every night. I wonder what it would take to get him. Maybe we can give up our 1st rounder and….. Well I doubt we have any pieces to trade for him.

  • rob

    What is the possibility that the celtics trade up in the draft for a big man like monroe or cousins. Also why hasn’t anyone talked about trading nate to a team looking for a little cap space or a sign and trade I’m not sure how much he’s getting paid but he showed he can be serious and why not get a guy like monte ellis and anthony randolph ellis can either be the starter (not sure if I trust him) and ray can be the 6th man and randolph can be our big man off the bench

  • lakershater13

    I love rondo and dont want to see him traded. Its fun to look at crazy possibilities that will never happen. The difference between trading rondo in 07 and trading rondo now is that in 07 both teams wanted him as a throw in. Right now teams would actually trade for him. We have rondo for 5 years at a pretty good discount considering what he has done and could do for us. So based on that i dont see him being traded this summer unless we get an offer we cannot refuse. CP3 is offered to us and we can say bye to rondo.

  • Shooter

    Some bigs i REALLY REALLY REALLY like in this years draft and we should consider should they be available at 19:

    Al farouq Aminu – A less polished version of KG minus KG’s low post game.Good handle,excellent athelete,great rebounder,aggressive finisher,shooting mechanics.Can play the 3,4 spots.If he’s available at 19 i’m not even hesitating to draft him if i were Ainge.

    Hassan Whiteside – Nice shooting mechanics/form for a 7ftr,shot blocking ability,freaky length.Needs some work on his footwork.Upside is there BUT it all depends on what team drafts him and what situation he lands in.I think he would fit in nicely here in Boston,being under KG’s wing and the chemistry here would really benefit his development.Plus we all know our NEED for a big and he’s 7ft ladies and gents.A quality we can certainly appreciate after the Lakers series.

    Ekpe Udoh – A mix between Carl Landry and Jason Thompson.Has very good footwork and speed,quickness around the rim and in the paint.Still needs to add some size and muscle to have an impact in the NBA.A bit of a question mark about his rebounding even thoug he averages 9.8pg at 35 minutes pg that’s pretty average.

    Truthfully, the only guy i see available at 19 is Whiteside or possibly…………..Aminu…….. i hope.

  • Shooter

    I’d take CP3 for Rondo in a heartbeat

  • Shooter

    I don’t think PP opting out is a crazy idea at all,it’s possible.

  • Jay P

    @lakershater

    Nate was good in a new games, and pretty bad in a few others.

    I’m not so confident of him running a team through a whole season and post season. Nate, TA, and rookie PG running things, forget hello championship, how about hello 30 TOs a per game!

  • Jay P

    If we can get Haywood for the MLE, I don’t see how you don’t make that deal.

    Add Ben Wallace on a Vet minimum contract and you just added some real nice depth to the front line on the cheap.

  • lakershater13

    @ Jay P

    Teams have proven you dont need a great point guard to win. Just someone to toss the ball to your stars. Look at the lakers. Fisher? Plays with a lot of heart and guts but put him with average players and fisher is awful. I can see nate starting and running the offense threw pierce/ gay. Lots of pick and rolls with KG and Amare. Then teams forget about nate and he gets open looks. Off the bench we just need someone to hit allen when he is open coming off screens. I can see Outlaw making plays for himself and other people off the bench.

    Besides… with a great point guard this season wasnt one of our biggest issues turn overs? Rondo was close to double figures in turn overs in the finals a couple times.

    Someone said they dont want to see Amare because he doesnt play defense. When have the suns ever been a defensive team? I remember when Ray Allen came to the celtics everyone said he couldnt play defense. Kobe 6-24 in game 7.

    These trades and the way this team would be set up in reality will never happen. Im just kind of shocked no one gave the idea a chance. This is the biggest free agent class with the most talent from top to bottom for years. Im all for the celtics getting a good player with the mid level and signing a couple vets with the league min. Yes we will make another run at it but what happens in a couple years when Allen, PP, and KG retire.

    Rondo and Perk are two guys you want to build a team around. If we cant make a splash this year we could be in trouble in the future. Detroit last year decided not to wait until this years great free agent class came out. They thought they won the lottery by signing Ben Gordan and Charlie V. They missed the playoffs and spent 95 mil over the next 4 years on those 2 guys. Ouch. We can contend for a couple more years but after that i dont want to see us become a 20-30 win a season team.

    Aside from last years draft Ainge has been nothing short of brilliant. Even picks that didnt pan out were used in trades. So starting thursday i want to see what ainge does. I dont want another 18 years with out a title. Lakers have 16 because they are in it all the time. We have 17 because we have only lost 4 times in the finals. This is the biggest off season for every team. It will be the biggest off season for years. Trading Rondo may not be the solution but we have to do something.

  • Jay P

    The teams a contender next year with what they have, and adding a few pieces via draft or MLE, I’m not sure outside of next year.

    Outside of that, when KGs extremely bloated salary comes off the books, they’ll have money to bring on another big time guy. If they get any value of this years and next years draft picks, they got one hell of a start toward building around Rondo and Perk.

    Don’t pass the panic button yet, they’ll need to build through the draft most likely, but there’s still options after 2011.

  • Perry

    Salmons, 30, is an ETO ($6.5m last year) — with the new cba looming he might consider coming to Boston.

    Maggette is not a free agent, Celtics do not have the pieces to acquire him by a trade nor does he solve the problems up front if Sheed retires. Let’s not forget about Perk’s MCL/PCL.

    Without Sheed, the Celtics have 5 players under contract plus tomorrow’s first round pick totaling $58.46m. The cap for 2010-11 will be $56.m with a luxury tax threshold of $68m.

    This past season the Celtic payroll totaled $87,054,429 with a luxury tax of $17,154,429 for a total of $104,208,858.

  • Perry

    Maggette was just traded to the Bucks. Salmons might be walking elsewhere.

  • http://CelticsHub.com Zach Lowe

    @Perry: Boston could have acquired Maggette last season in a 3-for-1 deal, I think, though I don’t have the math. And for Salmons, any # of deals could have worked. He’s definitely opting out (he told the Bucks already), so he thinks he can get more than his $6M plus deal. We’ll see.

  • Rich

    People still with visions of getting Rudy Gay, stop.

    Pierce has to opt out, his bird rights have to be renounced. Ray Allen has to also have his bird rights renounced. Rasheed Wallace has to retire and accept a buy-out. Then, you sign Rudy Gay for something like 4 years at 60 million and either Ray Allen and Paul Pierce accept very small salaries, or they aren’t coming back.

    Either that or Rudy Gay decides he is going to play for the MLE. Now, do any of those sound likely?

  • Perry

    @Zach. I like Salmons, but for sure he’ll be looking for more than $7m/season, and he’s worth it. I don’t remember a trade involving Maggette, only that phantom free agent offer two years ago…very poor defensive player.

    I still think Brewer is great value at $2.7m. At 23, he had two impressive seasons with Utah before his hammy injury in Memphis. The Grizz might be reluctant to match an offer of $3.5m – $4m since Gay and Randolph come unrestricted next season. They are a small market team with budget concerns. The cba is looming and Chris Wallace just signed a new contract. Maybe he can do us a favor. I can live with a Rondo/Brewer back court.

  • Buckets

    The only way I’d trade Rondo is if we get CP3 or Deron Williams in return straight up other than that no way we trade our cornerstone.

    I think Garnett has 2 years left on his contract, if I’m not mistaken, so I say we extend Paul for this year and next and re-sign Ray for 2 years so they can all retire together and then starts the youth movement.

  • http://www.shamrocknews.com pickalicous

    Pierce will not opt out of his contract. Its going to come down to more than just cash. He wants to retire as a Celtic and knows he will not get that kind of money else where. Maybe it makes sense for Dirk but not him. He has cash, and knows how hard it is to get to where hes at.

  • Jay P

    @pickalicous

    All the reasons you just said are perfect reasons for him to opt out, and restructure in Boston.

    If you’re right, and the money doesn’t matter as much to him, he’ll take a pay cut next year (probably giving up about 11 million) by opting out, and signing for about 3 years to retire in Boston.

  • Buckets

    Looks like we may not be selecting in the 1st round for the 2nd year in a row.

    Rumor is Danny is shopping our 19th pick for a future pick because he doesn’t like what might be there in our slot.

  • rob

    Rumor is that charlottes looking to get in to the draft. Who knows we might get tyson chandler or a big man who can come off the bench

  • Jeff

    Just a crazy thought here…

    The Warriors were looking to dump cap and were rumored to have issues with the Curry/Ellis backcourt and were looking to deal Ellis.

    Could the C’s possibly send, Sheed’s contract, Davis, and their 19th and 52nd pick for Ellis?

    It would seem to work, math wise!
    Sheed $6.3 next year + Davis $3 + Draft picks $2 = $11.3.
    Nelly might like the rebuilding opportunities with the picks, an energy big in Davis, and cap savings from Sheed, while dumping Ellis’ salary and eliminating backcourt issues! Seems like they are cleaning house right now.
    Monta would bring the scoring we need. If PP does opt, we would still be able to resign him for $15-16 per year, and that would leave us around $5 mil in cap. Use that to go after Haywood, and then resign Ray to $8-9 per year and use the full MLE on a guy like Outlaw or split between a couple guys like MIller and Barnes.
    Resign TA at around $2-3 and go for a vets min on Ben Wallace and Shaun Livingston!

    Unlike the whole Rudy Gay situation, this actually could work! If the Warriors are in fact looking to move Ellis while getting value in Picks, Players and Savings. It’s less of a rip off, by far, than the Gasoft deal!

  • Ray Leighton

    A lot of this discussion seems to be centered on the assumption that Paul will stay or that if Paul leaves, that the Celtics really can do anything about it. I think that the main thing that is going to be going through Paul’s mind is that from a security standpoint, he is going to get more money and a longer contract elsewhere. The only reason for Paul to turn down the $21 mil is to get multiple years on a contract. But Paul is older, the economy is tough, new collective bargaining coming in, and if he waits, then it’s another year of aging and increased injury risk that might ruin his chances in next year’s market. As others have noted, it would make sense to give up the big money this year for a longer contract. And when you consider that it is probably more than 50% likely that Lebron and DWade stay home, that means that, as Brendan pointed out, there are going to be 7 or 8 teams with 15-30 million in cap space, and most of them are going to be absolutely desperate to get a quality player. And if you look at the free-agent group after Lebron and DWade, then Paul is going to be in the next 7. Not to mention that there are a lot of power-forwards in the free agent market and not a lot else. Next to Lebron, Paul is the best small forward available.

    Consider the Clippers — young talent, they need a veteran go-to guy who can score from anywhere on the floor and create his own shot, and Paul is from LA. So if Paul is willing to test the market, then don’t be surprised if a couple of teams actually pull the trigger and dump a lot of money and the long-term contract on him. Can the Celtics afford to give him a four-year contract at near-max levels? Because I am betting that someone else will. I’m not sure that Danny will want to give Paul that long of a contract, nor am I sure that would be the right decision for the Celtics. And if we don’t add an extra year on, then our Bird Rights don’t mean anything; Paul would be financially better off leaving.

    So if Paul wants to stay, that’s great, but if he wants to opt out then I think that the likelihood of the Celtics suddenly having to fill his spot — and having a lot of money to do it — is actually probable, not just possible. At that point, the question becomes how aggressive and quick do we want to be in the market if Paul -might- leave?

    And the other critical factor is Doc — obviously if Doc stays, I think that the likelihood of everyone returning just went way up. But a new coach? A new defensive coach too? Then I think that Paul or Ray staying would be a lot less certain.

  • Ray Leighton

    Oh, btw, we are going to have to throw more than $2-3 million at TA. Every gm/coach in the league has recognized that TA is an elite perimeter defender and probably the closest anyone is going to come to shutting down Lebron and Kobe one-on-one. And in a simpler offensive system or one based more on transition, TA would be less of a liability on offense. I bet there is going to be a lot of interest in TA, especially from contenders, and we will have to match to keep him. I would imagine that Denver, for example, would very much like to have TA coming off the bench for them.

  • Celticjay

    I think a lot depends on whether Doc stays or not. It’s really unfortunate he doesn’t declare his intentions before the draft so the organization can plan accordingly.

    Without Doc, it’s more likely Ray Ray & Paul will opt-out.

    Either way we need to assume Perk will not be available, which means we need to draft a couple of players who we can play right away. We need a big man and another shooting guard. Both players have to be able to defend.

    If Doc leaves, it really messes up the overall chemistry.

  • Tai

    i just saw paul pierce lmao like a few hours ago i spoke to him and asked him to sign the mid level exception kinda feed him the chance of them going at it again but this time with a superstar 3 or 2 you know what his answer was “i am a superstar 3 but i’ll give it some thought” i said both he and ray have to do it for the future of the club both renounce and sign on MLE and you get shaq to sign on a MLE the superstar 2 or 3 in question is lebron or dwyane

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