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Trade Thoughts on Ray Allen, Nate Robinson and more

 

After a crazy weekend of trade talk, I’ve felt like I’ve been through the ringer regarding so many possible scenarios involving this Celtic squad. With less than 48 hours left to go here, I felt it was time, after closely monitoring the C’s situation to make a few educated guesses on how this trade deadline will play out. Feel free to throw in some of your own in the comments as well.

1) Any deal involving the Celtics will not go down until Thursday.

It’s quite simple really. when your best assets or expiring contracts, other teams aren’t going to make a deal with you until the 11th hour. With players like Brian Scalabrine, Tony Allen, Eddie House, Shelden Williams, J.R. Giddens etc. going to the sellers, those are not guys that will be in the long term future of the club they are traded to. They are simply ways for trade partners to shave future payroll.

Thus, if you are an opposing GM and have a useful player on a bad contract (Kirk Hinrich) or a useful player on a reasonable deal, you generally would be looking for some kind of talent in any deal initially. Things might change Thursday, when ownerships pressure GM’s to dump that payroll. That’s when Danny Ainge is looking to strike, at minimal cost, for the deal that helps this team now and is minimally damaging long term. Will that deal pop up? No one knows for sure, but it definitely has a better chance of happening as we get closer to the 3pm deadline Thursday, once more dominoes start to fall.

2) Ray Allen will not be traded

There are few teams in which a deal involving Ray would make sense. Sacramento for Kevin Martin would be one, but they don’t look ready to give up on him yet, just for cap room. Philly wants to hold on to Iguodala it appears as well unless they can package Dalembert with him, a deal too expensive for the C’s to handle for next year in all likelihood. Any Chicago deal wouldn’t bring enough talent back now unless Luol Deng was thrown in the mix, and it doesn’t sound like Chicago is ready to go there. Golden State would want to unload a bad contract like Corey Maggette in any deal for Monta Ellis as well so that is another financial dead end. Washington, we’ve already covered. Put it all together? Ray likely stays put, unless a wildcard team appears.

Here is the other reality with this team that everyone is forgetting with Ray Allen if he stays put. They can bring him back at a major discount next year and really need to do so, in order to keep their contender window open. Why? Because the team is well over the cap next year. If they let Ray walk, they can’t replace his payroll, they can only use the mid level exception (5-6 million) draft picks, or the trades to replace them. Since the C’s only have 6 players under contract, they will be best served spending that MLE exception elsewhere, and won’t have to dip into it by bringing back Allen since he will have bird rights.

So what will happen? My best guess is he stays, the team re-signs him for a major discount after this year with a reduced role and bring in another 2/3 type player to help reduce Ray and Paul’s minutes for real this time. I’m getting ahead of myself here though. Let’s head back to the present.

3) The Celtics will add a point guard, either via trade or more likely via buyout.

Talk to anyone who knows this team well and they will tell you the biggest need for this team when everyone is healthy is a backup point guard. Quisy can play it, but doesn’t know the playbook well enough too, Eddie is a big liability at the position and Tony Allen is well….Tony Allen. The need, like the past 2 years is there and we’ve heard the trade rumors buzzing for possible guards.

Kirk Hinrich is a guy I’d like to see Danny make a move on, but with his albatross of a contract, I can’t blame him for not taking him on, even if he costs nothing more than expiring contracts. Still, if ownership can handle that additional payroll for next year, Hinrich is a guy still in his prime at 28 and could play 25-30 minutes for you in the years to come, backing up Rondo and Ray Allen. He plays good D, can handle the ball and can shoot from deep despite a down year. If Danny wants to make a real upgrade without touching key pieces of the roster/trading draft picks, Hinrich is the best bet.

A wildcard in this whole scenario would be Minnesota who has Ramon Sessions locked up long term and were spotted scouting the C’s a week or two back. Let’s be honest here though, unless Danny is a magic man, the C’s have no assets to get Sessions that they would be interested in dealing. Same goes for Luke Ridnour in Milwaukee, another appealing option on an expiring deal, but with little incentive for the Bucks to flip him unless they get something worthwhile back. The C’s sadly don’t have much to offer.

So where do the C’s go from here? They likely will wait for some better options during the buyout period, where some options should come out of the woodwork. They could also try obtaining a low level guy who can competently run an offense and play better defense than Eddie House for 10-15 minutes a game. Those guys are generally few and far between come trade deadline time.

4) Nate Robinson will not be a Celtic unless the C’s give up a 1st round pick for him

Alan Hahn of Newsday has reported the C’s remain very interested in the slam dunk champion. With the Knicks not wanting to add any more payroll for next year, the C’s really have nothing to offer the Knicks besides taking on their bad contracts (No chance) or giving up a draft pick or two for Nate. The fact Robinson is also a base year compensation player makes any proposed deal tougher to complete under the cap.

I myself, am torn on this proposition, Robinson would bring an influx of youth and athleticism off the bench…..but would it be worth a 1st round pick for just a 3 month rental? I’m not sure, especially since Robinson won’t be the kind of piece that would make or break this team. Frank Isola of the New York Daily News also reports the C’s are still hot on Robinson’s trail so it will be interesting to see how much Ainge thinks Robinson is worth.

That’s it for now. Keep posted to us for the latest updates and feel free to throw out some of your own ideas as well.

  • rav

    “Quisy can play it, but doesn’t know the playbook well enough too”

    Then how will Hinrich or Augustin learn the plays in three months?

    Btw, what are your thoughts on trading away Big Baby for a PG (with no big man coming back) but signing Gooden to the Vet Min? Obviously, Baby is better, but 1) We’ll get the PG we need 2) Gooden can give us the same production in the same minutes, plus proper size and veteran savvy

    Yes to Nate, no to giving up the pick. I’d only give up the pick if the Championship was guaranteed. Nate will help us – a lot – but we still won’t be the best in the NBA until our team can get its act together. There are a couple of FA/Buyout PG guys I like. There’s Ty Lue of course, but Antonio Daniels has defensive chops and SG size (thus fitting well with House) – only problem is lack of 3 point range (Sheed and House make up for it) and selfishness (but our stagnant offense need someone who creates his own shot/looks to get his – this is why I’m partial to adding Nate as well).

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  • http://www.livefromapt.blogspot.com w2

    Last night I had this crazy dream that the Celts moved KG to Chicago for a package involving Kirk and Noah. I was excited. My subconscious is obviously very down on KG currently despite how intense and passionate the man is and how much better we seem to play D with him on the floor (except if Rashard Lewis is playing).

    Going forward, we need a guy who can consistently bring the ball up, initiate the offense, and stay in front of PG’s.

    Nate will do. I would rather have Kirk for his defense. But House is far too streaky (O and D).

  • Jose Martinez

    Man!! i think ray allen should not leave the boston celtics, because they need him he broke the record for most 3′z in a playoff game. he is one of the best players in da game.. so dont trade him… #1 fan of Ray Allen…

  • http://kimwhite694.insanejournal.com/

    im about 23, in school and having a great time! I work on chemistry and if I’m not super busy with class im usually out clubbing and loving my best celebrity Kim Kardashian!

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