I haven’t had time to delve deeply into the Ray Allen-Kevin Martin rumors, but others have done a fine job discussing them.
Start here and here for the views of Tom Ziller, author of the Kings blog Sactown Royalty and a writer for NBA Fanhouse. Ziller is a longtime Martin fan (from the days before the stat gurus made Martin a cult foul-drawing icon) and he says the C’s would be making a great deal in any Allen-Martin trade….
One interesting nugget Ziller addresses: How Martin’s deal would look in, say, 2012, if the owners get their way and a new collective bargaining agreement limits maximum player salaries to a fraction (two-thirds? three-quarters?) of what they are now and imposes a hard (or harder, at least) salary cap. Martin is scheduled to make $11.5 million in 2012 and $12.5 million the next season, according to the indispensable (literally) ShamSports.com. Ziller concludes that Martin’s deal may make him overpaid under the terms of the (theoretical) new CBA, but not wildly so.
The same cannot be said for the C’s other would-be trade target (and Brendan Jackson fave), Andre Iguodala.
Iggy’s in the middle of a monster escalating deal that peaks with a $15.9 million player option in 2014. (To put it more accurately: Iguodala has an early termination option for that season, meaning he can opt out of the final year—and give up that $15.9 million salary—to become a free agent. Even speaking four years in advance, I’m comfortable saying there’s next to no chance Iggy opts out of $15.9 million unless the Sixers name Allen Iverson GM between now and then).
Paul Flannery, writing at WEEI.com, takes a thorough look at both Martin and Iggy and concludes, rightly, that any deal for either of these guys is exceedingly complicated. (Flannery also says Martin’s defense might be an issue). The Celtics have not even been linked to the Iggy trade talks (the Suns are dominating those at the moment), and they would almost certainly have to take on Sam Dalembert’s deal in order to nab Iggy. They’re not going to do that.
As for the Kings, Ziller and Flannery both point out that Sacto wants more than the cap relief Ray’s $19M expiring deal will give them after this season; they want a young big, since Jason Thompson and Spencer Hawes continue to develop in fits and starts. Obviously, Boston is not dealing Perk. So if the Kings stick to that demand, a third team would have to get involved. And how many teams out there have a talented young (and available) big man more reliable than Thompson or Hawes? The Kings won’t want Amare Stoudemire, especially if he’s serious about opting in on his massive extension next year instead of becoming a free agent. Ty Thomas, still brimming with something resembling “potential,” is not really a significant upgrade (if he’s an upgrade at all) over Hawes and Thompson.
I’m sticking to my original view: Ray is staying, like it or not.