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A Shot at Some Definitive Trade Conclusions

 

Marc Stein, ears always to the ground, has some updated trade chatter here. Stein’s piece jibes well with those of other plugged-in league observers. We’ve got two weeks to go before the Feb. 18 deadline, but some common themes are starting to come together. I think we can begin to make some definitive conclusions about the trade market and Boston’s place in it:

• The 76ers are not trading Andre Iguodala to anyone unless the deal also involves Sam Dalembert or Elton Brand. (Sorry, Brendan)

• The Bulls are not trading Luol Deng without getting an asset other than cap relief in return; 

• Kirk Hinrich and John Salmons are available. I would be shocked if the Celtics had not already contacted Chicago about one or both of them, and several outlets have reported that the C’s have inquired about Hinrich; 

• The Celtics will NOT give up Ray Allen in any deal with the Bulls centering around Hinrich or Salmons. This should be obvious, but the Chicago Sun-Times (citing no sources of any kind, not even anonymous ones) gave this notion some credence it doesn’t deserve. If the C’s go for either play, they will offer a combination of expiring deals and wait out Chicago, hoping no contender offers anything better. Boston will only give up Allen for an impact player, and there just aren’t many of those that a) work under the cap; b) are available. 

• The Celtics are not the Yankees (or the Red Sox). Just because the team was willing to spend more than $85 million on player salaries and pile up a mammoth luxury tax bill this season does not mean the ownership is willing to do so in perpetuity. This is particularly true given louder and louder rumblings that the NBA owners are going to push for a hard salary cap or a lower soft cap in upcoming collective bargaining negotiations with the players. You can’t just sign the C’s up for paying Monta Ellis and Corey Maggette $20M combined through 2014. Real life doesn’t work that way, even though the trade machine does.

What else can we assume at this point?

  • Zack

    The Sixers have some terrible contracts that we could try to take that would leave them a very light payroll for next year. What are the chances that the Sixers buy out the rest of Rays contract and he takes a 1 month vacation and comes back to the C’s?

  • nowayout

    Ray stays a Celtic and we’ll see what this group could do at their full strength (hopefully)…which is perfectly fine to me

  • Sean

    Well, that would be phenomenal.

  • Sweeney

    Zack….not a chance

  • Zack

    I understand its a long shot and would be completely one sided, but we could really use Pau…. I mean Iggy, and one sided trades have happened in the past. The Sixers just want cap space anyways, would the biggest issue be if someone tried to pick him up (not pass waivers)?

  • ssspence

    Zach, the Bulls would have to think seriously about a trade where they drop both Deng and Salmons AND get Ray Allen’s bird rights in the process.

    Bosh wouldn’t come to the Bulls if their squad was Rose, Allen, Heinrich, Noah, Gibson, Johnson and should they chose Ty Thomas? Or — better yet — bag Thomas, renounce Ray Allen, have $35mil in cap space and sign both Bosh and Wade? Or dare I say it, Lebron and one of those guys.

    My trade proposal is Deng, Salmons and Pargo for Ray and Giddens. Stay tuned…..

  • http://www.celticshub.com Zach Lowe

    @ssspence: You seem to know that Ray’s bird rights aren’t that valuable because of the $28M cap hold that comes with them. The only way to get rid of that cap hold is to renounce those rights.

  • ssspence

    Zach — $28mil? Wouldn’t they be close to his current $18mil? My point is: Ray’s rights could be valuable in S-and-Ting him should the FA route only produce one max player.

  • al

    would you do this?

    ray, jr, and a 1st for corey magette, anthony randolph and raja bell with the condition that GSW buys out ray? Cohan is trying to sell the W’s and getting maggette off the books would help, c’s get a 6th man, a versatile 4 and raja bell

  • http://www.celticshub.com Zach Lowe

    @ssspence: DraftExpress has it at $28M based on the formula of 150 percent of his prior salary, but I’m not sure that’s right based on my reading of Salary Cap FAQ. Consulting the oracle (aka Larry Coon).

  • ssspence

    Thanks for the feedback on Ray’s cap hold. We’re shooting this one around over at celticsblog.com

  • ssspence

    From ‘Who’ over at Cs blog:

    “My understanding of it is that a cap hold can’t be more than a maximum contract. So for Ray, that would either be 30% of the cap or 105% of his previous year’s pay.”

    So basically, $19mil.

  • notsmart

    I don’t understand why the combined 20m a year for Ellis and Maggette is so bad for the c’s. Ellis is only 24, and roughly 10 million a piece for each player sounds like a bargain. If GSW were to buy out Ray Allen I don’t see how the C’s could pass that up? Anyone want to shed some light on that for me?

  • http://www.celticshub.com Zach Lowe

    @ssspence: That’s also my impression from my reading of Salary Cap FAQ. (That the cap hold can’t be bigger than the max salary, so I believe DraftExpress is wrong).

  • Zack

    @notsmart
    Ellis needs the ball too much and I think his defense is so so. I like the idea of buying out Ray and I think thats the only reason I’d trade Ray

  • NV

    Good. Considering that I hate the idea of any (so far) proposed trade with the Bulls I’m glad that the John Salmons trade won’t go down. I think the C’s should at least give a shot at working something out with Philly for Andre though! That would be a sweet trade

  • Chris

    Any thoughts about Ramon Sessions? I’ve been impressed with him whenever I’ve seen him play and he generally seems undervalued in the league. Not sure if the T-Wolves are looking to trade him, but he’d fill an important role on this team as back-up PG in the short-term while being young enough to continue to grow as a player and remain useful to the Cs down the road [something which acquiring a veteran PG wouldn't accomplish.]

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