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An Updated Look at Ray Allen’s Shooting Woes

 

At the beginning of this season (through 17 games) Ray Allen was struggling mightily with his outside shot. It was almost too early in the season to speculate too much on the problem, but I was alarmed enough given his age and track record, to take an indepth look at his shooting woes Here’s what the numbers looked like back in November:

2009-10 Shooting Statistics for Ray Allen (17 games)

46.4% FG Percentage
30.1% 3pt Percentage
56.2 % True Shooting Percentage
51.7 % eFG Percentage
4.4 3 point attempts per game
45% FG Percentage on long 2 point jumpers (16-23 feet)

Back then, those numbers were especially troubling given how big of a drop off they showed from his numbers last year, as well as his career numbers:

FG Percentages: 48% (2008) 44.8% (career)
3 pt Percentage: 40.9% (2008) 39.7% (career)
True Shooting Percentage: 62.4% (2008 2nd in league) 57.4% (career)
eFG Percentage: 57.5% (2008 5th in league) 52.3% (career)
3 point attempts per game: 6.1 (2008) 5.9 (career)
FG Percentage on long 2 point jumpers: 49% (2008)

Statistics complied from 82games, Basketball-Reference, and HoopData.

After the jump, we take a look at Ray’s updated numbers at the halfway point of the season to see exactly how much, (if any) progress has been made since November. The answer may surprise you.

2009-10 Shooting Statistics for Ray Allen (43 games)

45.3% FG Percentage
34.5% 3pt Percentage
57.1 % True Shooting Percentage
51.9 % eFG Percentage
4.4 3 point attempts per game
45% FG Percentage on long 2 point jumpers (16-23 feet)

Not great, but still not as bad as you may have expected. The 3 pt shooting percentage increased dramatically to 34.5% from the 17 game mark. However that number overall is still subpar, and is slightly under Ray’s career low for a season (35.6%) which occurred way back in the lockout shortened 1998-99 season.

So what about Ray’s other offensive numbers? Would they be career lows if the season ended today? Surprisingly not even close. In all other categories listed above, Ray’s numbers are much closer to his career average rather than any kind of career low in those categories.

So what do they make of all of this? Well let’s first say he hasn’t fallen off a cliff offensively…..maybe a bit from 3 point range but not as a whole on the offensive end. Next, let’s take into account how well the team performs while he is on the floor. With a +/- of +259, he is once again the frontrunner of this roster in that category, over 50 points ahead of his closest competition (Rajon Rondo).

So while Ray might not be stroking it as well from deep, he is still a more than competent threat in helping create space and opportunities for the rest of this teammates to succeed besides him, while he is out there.

One caveat to all of this however is Ray’s production in other areas of the floor. His PER (a formula which factors in other parts of his game such as rebounding, turnovers, etc.) this season is 14.2 which is a career low for him. That number also ranks him 26th overall in the league amongst shooting guards. That my friends is not a pretty number and lands him behind guys like (gulp) Allen Iverson, Willie Green and J.J. Redick. Yikes.

Again, declines in those categories are to be expected for a 34 year old guard that is forced to play 35+ minutes a game. Still with an aging veteran core surrounding him, it is easier to understand why the C’s are having so much trouble with particular areas of the game like rebounding this year.

So what do we make of all this? I guess we shouldn’t be surprised, but Ray’s game has taken a sharper fall in parts of his game we may not have anticipated.  Should the team consider trading the sharpshooter who is understandably on the decline? I say no, but it’s reasonable to think that Danny is at least picking up the phone to listen to proposals, for the highly limited possibility he might find a deal that makes sense both short and long term to replace Jesus.

  • Sam

    Yes agreed it is reasonable to listen to ideas but I still say no to trading him.

    The things he does do for us aren’t easy to replace. His postive influence on Rondo might be one of the reason’s we’ve seen the growth in the kid like we have.

    Bottom line is I don’t want to trade him for anybody that’s selfish and has a hotter shooting hand right now.

    Look at Orlando they brought Vince in and destroyed the chemisty that took them to the NBA Finals last year. We are still a contender and I don’t want that thrown out the window.

  • dont_drink_the_koolaid

    great breakdown. i love these pieces. keep up the good work.

    i think its clear what you will get with ray. every night. no surprises. the man is a pro. i’m a a fan. but the question is, is that enough to bring home the trophy? ….not that it is all on ray, but he is (by lightyears) the most valuable trade asset. KGs knee is the biggest title factor, but ray is ‘the piece’.

    @sam: agree that the Cs shouldn’t do anything rash like the vince trade. but that trade was stupid from day1. all the things they were touting he would do for them….he hadn’t done since his raptors days. the magic have the deepest team in the league but aren’t going anywhere. that deal killed to Magic title hopes for the next 2 years….or longer. ainge is smarter….and he’s on the phone feeling out his options…

    iguodala, iguodala, iguodala :)

  • http://www.celticshub.com Zach Lowe

    I think kool-aid has imbibed heavily of the Iguodala Kool-Aid.

  • dont_drink_the_koolaid

    indeed i believe i broke kool-aid rule#1

    never get high on your own supply :)

  • http://angryirish.com Chris O

    Who cares about PER as long as the man shoots decent and has a good +/- number. I do love Hollinger’s #’s and I do love what he has done with statistics but PER I think is probably the most overrated thing. I would like to see a study done to how PER of other players on a team effect each other. You can’t have a team with everyone having 30+ PER (or 20 + for example). Essentially for some PER stats, one players #’s cut into anothers (asst %, rebound rate, usage rate et cetera). That being said the more ‘talent’ around a player the more you should expect a player PER to go down. This is not always going to be the case but it is a general rule. BTW Ray still have a 2+ EWA (per Hollinger) meaning he adds 2 wins over any normal scrub…even though a normal replacement scrub could be expected to get an average 15 PER.

  • Cptn Bubbles

    Has anyone else noticed Ray shuffling his feet some with the shot? I’ll have to go back & watch the game, but I thought I saw some funky foot fumbling. Also, is there any correlation between a set Ray catch & shoot vs the Ray in motion shot ? I saw several quick shots coming off screens where his form looked odd in past games. The game winner vs the blazers had a fantastic screen (thanks KG) which gave him plenty of time to gather himself & go straight up. Beauty

    Just Curious….when you guys watch games like the Cavs vs Lakers………who do you want to win? I’d like to see the Cavs have a worse record, but I cringe at pulling for the purple. I found myself wanting Bron to take it to the Lakers, but then I felt guilty about the Cs needing the Cavs to loose. What do you guys do, other than not watch the game ?

  • http://www.celticshub.com Zach Lowe

    @Bubs: I just watch for the pleasure of watching the game. Sounds dumb, but it’s true. I mean, you can’t argue with the joy of watch Pau Gasol.

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  • http://angryirish.com Chris O

    When I watch Cavs vs. Lakers I root for both teams to get a loss. Or for Lebron to get just injured enough to the point where he can’t play, until next year when he becomes a Celtic (haha just a little delusional I know).

  • DeVelaine

    Double whammy on rooting for the Lakers. Only two men who have ever worn that jersey for a full career would I be proud to meet and cheer for – Magic and Jerry West, and if I need to explain either, I’ll be saddened forever. And since both aren’t playing, I’ll take a pass on seeing them do anything other than lose.

    Then there’s the fact that, while I’ll never do anything against him, I’d rather see Kobe permanently disabled or worse, than you even think about thinking about cheering for him. Yes, I hate him that much.

  • J

    Bottom line, R

  • Jsafety21

    Fact of the matter is, and people forget this frequently, we have four elite players in this league. Between Ray, KG, Paul and Rondo, each of them has to sacrifice a bit of their game to mesh into a unit. Remember Ray Allen in milwaukee and seattle, one of the most dynamic players we had in this league. Sure, he isn’t the freak he once was, either is KG but they are both prime time players. Pierce is still the same type of killer instinct scorer that you can’t teach. While Rondo is getting better every minute of every night. Sure, Lakers are stacked and so are Orlando and Cleveland. But bottom line is we have the best leader and presence in the game right now in KG, with two of the most clutch shooters in the game with Paul and Ray. See all yall in June when KG is healthy, and ESPN will have to swallow some words about the Cavs and Lakers

  • A remote Celtics fan

    I just hope the Celtics management reads this blog… and this is not the first post that triggered this thought. Good job, long live Ray Allen 20!

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  • Mindi Schulkin

    All episodes are online at http://www.squidoo.com/scrubsepisodes streaming for free. watch it online now.

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