Post-game Reactions

Two interesting tidbits from the Herald today

1) The Celtics are pursuing sign-and-trade deals in the wake of losing out on Grant Hill;

2) The team is interested in signing Jamario Moon.

Let’s start with Moon. Yesterday, I crossed Moon off the list of players the C’s could sign for the bi-annual exception (about $2 million), because Miami has already tendered him a qualifying offer. It turns out I was premature. According to Sham Sports (generally one of the most reliable sources for salary information), the Heat’s qualifying offer for Moon had to be about $1 million. But the Heat’s offer was actually less than that, according to the South Florida Sun-Sentinel. The Heat’s offer is only about 25 percent guaranteed, meaning Moon is only guaranteed something around $200,000 or $250,000 if he signs the deal. 

So the Celtics can actually offer Moon more with their bi-annual exception. Of course, the Heat could match any offer Boston makes for Moon, which would then necessitate a sign-and-trade. 

How good is Moon? He’s actually a better jump-shooter than I thought. As I’ve mentioned before, I’ve attended several Raptors games in the last two seasons, and the crowd audibly groans (sometimes) when Moon loads up for a 20-footer. Certainly, Moon’s hot spot data (available below) shows he takes more long two-point jumpers than I’d like, but he makes them at a decent clip. His effective FG% on jumpers is around 47 percent, which is solid, and he’s a capable three-point shooter (35 percent). 

His net plus/minus values from his 132 games (see here and here) with the Raptors are outstanding, but they took a turn to the negative during his short stint with the Heat last season. Really, both sample sizes are probably too small to draw much from, but I think the truth lies somewhere closer to him being a productive player. His adjusted plus/minus numbers (which adjust for the quality of teammates and opponents) rank him as one of the more productive players in the league for last season and the last two seasons combined. (Note: His minute totals are low enough to qualify him for the bottom chart on each of those pages–the one that has no minimum playing time requirement. In other words, small sample size). 

The adjusted plus/minus data show most of Moon’s value comes from his defense, but, unlike Tony Allen, he’s not an offensive liability that allows an opponent to almost play 5-on-4. 

As for general sign-and-trade arrangements, Brian Robb covered that ground earlier today. But I think the expiring deals of Tony Allen and Brian Scalabrine may have gotten a little more valuable last week with the release of the league memo predicting a sharp drop in the salary cap number for 2010-11 (to around $53 million and possibly as low as $50 million). Teams looking to pursue max contracts suddenly have a few million dollars less cap space than they anticipated, so taking on $5 million or so in expiring deals is a big deal. I think Boston could get somebody useful in a sign-and-trade.

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Zach Lowe

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  • Ray

    Look at it from Miami's POV. They could sign-and-trade Moon and take on Allen's or Scal's expiring contract OR they could do nothing and have fewer obligations. Unless Riley has a bizarre desire for Allen or Scal the Celtics need to sweeten the pot. (And if the C's try to sign Moon outright, Miami matches and gets a good player cheap.)

  • I agree about TA and Veal's contracts being valuable trade chips. There's plenty of teams out there desperate to clear as much cap space as they possibly can for the FA bonanza. Even if the Heat don't want the contracts, which I imagine they would so they can not only re-sign Wade but bring in another star to make him WANT to re-sign, I'd imagine that getting a third team involved would be doable. There's a lot of teams that are perfectly happy to suck next year just to have a shot at 'Bron, Wade, Bosh, Amare, etc.

    Bottom line here is, Brian Scalabrine suddenly has more value for the Celtics as trade bait than he ever did as a player.

  • If we can do a sign and trade and get Moon and sign big baby back and keep him that would be nice with athe addition of sheed along side with big baby house and moon that will be the best bench in the nba to go along with the best starting 5 in the nba make it happen ainge

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  • Steve

    Watched Moon for the past 2 years and nobody complained when he was traded. Seems like a guy who was just happy to be in the league and often played like that.

    Following a great start after he won the starting job, the quality of his play took a long slow slide into – who is that guy anyway, I thought he was good?

    Maybe he'll be motivated playing with some vets, he has ability, its just he seemed to find it difficult to put out the effort.

  • Ray

    Trading for Allen and Scal in order to clear cap room only makes sense if you trade away longer contracts that are currently on the books. Signing a guy and then trading him doesn't make sense if you are clearing room.

  • If they do a aign and trade, it would be nice to see them get a back up point guard. House is a nice three point shooter, but he really lacks point guard skills. Celts would be in trouble with their current roster if something happened to Rondo.

  • jay

    Absolute best case scenario I can see things playing out right now:

    Resign baby, pull a sign-and trade for Moon in a 2-3man deal (TA, scal, who knows who else) and pick up Pruitt for the back up PG role.

    Is Pruitt an ideal back up? No, but there aren't a whole lot of other viable options. Also, I don't honestly believe we'll get Moon and Baby, will most likely be on or the other. If I had my choice, I'll take Moon, our second string front court will be fine without baby, and we need a decent swingman to get Pierece some much needed rest.

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