Celtics: 51-18 (23-12 on the road); Off. Eff. 110.8 (5th); Def. Eff. (102.0–tied, 1st)

Spurs: 45-22 (24-9 at home); Off. Eff. 108.1 (16th); Def. Eff. (103.6–4th)

The C’s begin their next-to-last back-to-back of the season tonight against San Antonio, and it sounds like they will be without both Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett for tonight’s game. With Tim Duncan expected to play after sitting out the Spurs last game (it was a second game of a b-to-b), the Spurs have a big advantage. (Note: Our TH Network brothers at the Spurs blog 48 Minutes of Hell say they’re fine with Gregg Popovich resting Duncan again tonight). More importantly, the C’s are starting a stretch of five games that includes four road games against the Spurs, Grizz, Magic and Hawks. After that, they finish with six of eight at home, mostly against mediocre teams. Still, a few road losses here, and the C’s could find themselves two or three games behind Orlando in the “race” for the second seed. Play well over the next five, and the C’s can push for the second seed back in Boston.

You know what you’re getting with the Spurs offensively: Duncan in the post, Parker in the lane and a ton of three-pointers. The threes killed the C’s in the first meeting, a 105-99 win in which San Antonio made 8-of-21 from deep, including Roger Mason, Jr.’s back-breaker in the last minute. Matt Bonner made three of his six three-point attempts, and the Spurs overall are the second-best three-point shooting team in the league in terms of percentage. You’ve got to close out if you want to beat them.

The C’s did everything else well in that game. They shot 51 percent from the floor, turned it over just 11 times and held Tony Parker to seven points on 3-of-12 shooting. The Spurs won because of their long-range shooting and a plus 10 advantage in free throw attempts. Don’t expect them to duplicate that tonight–the Spurs are dead last in the league in the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts.

Perk will likely have his hands full tonight defending Duncan, a tough job he normally shares with KG. I shudder at the thought of Mikki Moore trying to guard Duncan while Perk’s on the bench. Moore may foul out in less than 10 minutes if he has to spend time on Timmy.

The other thing I always watch when these teams play is how the Spurs handle Paul Pierce. With Bruce Bowen’s playing time down from about 30 minute per game to 20 this season, the Spurs have to find other players to match up with star shooting guards/small forwards like Pierce. Expect to see Mason and even George Hill take a crack at the Truth tonight; Hill spent some time guarding Kobe Bryant last week, and our the Spurs experts at 48 Minutes of Hell say Hill’s defense has come along nicely this season.

Other things I’m looking at tonight, in bullet form after the jump.

• Any positive sign from Marbury. He finally–finally!–scored a hoop in the lane on Wednesday, thought it was an over the shoulder prayer that had no business going in. I still see no lift in his legs and no ability to finish strong in the paint. It will be interesting to see who Marbury guards on defense if he starts again today. He obviously can’t guard Parker, so that leaves a likely match-up against a bigger guard such as Mason.

• Mikki Moore has to do a better job at avoiding silly fouls, as Red’s Army pointed out this week. With the C’s so thin, there is just no excuse for fouling out in so few minutes.

• The Rondo-Parker match-up. Should be a joy to watch, and, according to this fun Boston Herald story, Parker doesn’t seem to enjoy any comparisons between he and Rajon–especially in their jump-shooting abilities when they started in the NBA.